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Earlier Articles

Sea Level Rise, August 27, 2010

Tax Credits, August 15, 2010

UN Taxes on U.S. Citizens, August 8, 2010

IGCC, August 1, 2010

China’s Temperatures, July 18, 2010

Milk Pollution, July 11, 2010

The Fourth of July, July 4, 2010

Carbon Trap, June 27, 2010

Cost of Electricity - PARTs I & II, May 30 - June 13, 2010

Electricity Shortage by 2050, May 23, 2010

Is Nuclear Dead in U.S.?, May 16, 2010

Electrical Efficiency Issue, May 9 2010

Conservation Using R.O.I., May2 2010

Cost of Electricity with IGCC, April 28, 2010

Denmark’s Folly, April 18, 2010

Ben Franklin, April 11, 2010

Fracking, April 4, 2010

Challenges to EPA Endangerment Finding, March 28 2010

Natural Gas Bonanza, March 14, 2010

Smart Meters, Threat, Weapon or Opportunity, February 28, and March 7, 2010

Bogus CHP Efficiencies, February 21, 2010

Snow Job, February 14, 2010

Clean Coal? February 7, 2010

ICE (Satire), January 31, 2010

Transmission Line Losses, January 24, 2010

Capacity Factor, January 17, 2009

Demand Response, January 10, 2009

Threat to America’s Security, January 3, 2010

EV Push, December 26, 2009

Electricity Shortage by 2050, December 13, 2009

Climate Scientists Cooked the Books, December 5, 2009

IPCC Head Works for China, November 29, 2009

Is Solar Power a Failure? November 22, 2009

Germany’s Renewable Experience, November 8 & 15

CO2 Emissions from Coal, November 1, 2009

CO2 Litigation, October 25, 2009

CO2 Revisited, October 18, 2009


WAXMAN MARKEY ARTICLES BETWEEN BARS

CO2 Based Energy Policy, October 10, 2009

Indecipherable Language, October 4, 2009

Smoot Hawley déjà vu, September 20, 2009

Waxman-Markey Dictates Codes, September 13, 2009

Net Metering, September 6, 2009

Climate Change, Urinals & Deficit Spending, August 30, 2009

Waxman Markey snippet, August 23, 2009



Sea Level Rise

Geophysical Research, Volume 115, established that there would be minimal sea rise over the next century.

The abstract said, “The 20th century regional and global sea level variations are estimated based on long-term tide gauge records. … The global mean sea level for the period January 1900 to December 2006 is estimated to rise at a rate of 1.56 ± 0.25 mm/yr which is reasonably consistent with earlier estimates, but we do not find significant acceleration. ... “

With little or no acceleration, which is contrary to what the IPCC has said, there will be only a small rise in the sea levels during this century.

The 1.56 mm/yr non-accelerating rate of sea level rise results in a rise of 6 inches over the next 100 years.

Residents of Florida and other coastal areas can rest easy and not be afraid that they will be flooded by a 23 foot rise in sea levels.

TSAugust

August 22, 2010


Tax Credits

The government provides tax credits for a variety of reasons. Some include:

  • Promote wind and solar

  • Promote the use of ethanol

  • Promote buying electric vehicles.

  • Promote the purchase of energy efficient products, such as air conditioners.

Naturally everyone receiving a tax credit is pleased.

But are tax credits good?

This is a question we should all be asking.

First, a tax credit paid to one person comes out of the pockets of others. It redistributes the wealth.

Second, if there are insufficient tax revenues to cover the tax credits the money must be borrowed from someone, probably a foreign country

In other words, tax credits increase the national debt.

Supposedly tax credits are used to promote a common good.

Ethanol and electric vehicles are supposed to reduce foreign oil imports and cut CO2 emissions.

Actually, all tax credits are a political payoff to some particular group.

Ethanol tax credits are a political payoff to farmers.

Tax credits for electric vehicles are a payoff to environmental groups and automobile companies. There is no way that electric vehicles can substantially reduce oil imports for at least three decades – and should we really be concerned about CO2 emissions?

If we are taking money from one citizen and giving it to another – or if we borrow money and increase the national debt, can we really believe that tax credits are good?

 TSAugust

August 15, 2010


UN Taxes on U.S. Citizens

At the ongoing climate conference in Bonn, Germany, the UN is proposing to tax air fares and cross border money transaction, among various methods for raising money. These funds would be used by the UN to pay developing countries so they can implement actions to adapt to climate change.

The UN meeting in Copenhagen last December agreed that $100 billion would be paid to developing countries every year by 2020.

No matter how the UN structures the taxes, U.S. citizens will end up paying a sizeable portion of them.

U.S. citizens will pay some of these taxes even if Congress never ratifies a climate treaty or cap and trade legislation.

For example, the tax on international air fares would probably be collected by the air carriers. Foreign airlines would be compelled to collect the tax by their governments who subscribe to the global warming hypothesis. U.S. airlines might be compelled to collect the tax from U.S. passengers in order to have landing rights at foreign airports.  

Banks would have to pay the tax on money transfers to foreign countries and then turn around and increase fees on their U.S. customers.

The current administration supports these types of activities and will use whatever means are at their disposal to have the U.S. involved.

U.S. negotiator at the Bonn conference, Jonathan Pershing said, “We have multiple tools at our disposal. We will use all of those tools," when asked about the U.S. cutting CO2 emissions.

TSAugust

August 8, 2010


IGCC

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) power plants turn coal into gasses, primarily CO2 and hydrogen, and then separate and capture the CO2 while burning the hydrogen in a gas turbine.

The exhaust from the gas turbine heats the water in a boiler to create steam which then drives a steam turbine. The combination of a gas turbine and steam turbine is why it is called a combined cycle power plant.

The gas and steam turbines drive electric generators to produce electricity.

Some people look upon IGCC as a way to capture CO2 while still using coal to generate electricity.

There are two problems with IGCC units.

The first is that no one knows whether it will be possible to sequester all the captured CO2 underground in geologic formations.

The second is its very high cost.

The most up to date technologically advanced supercritical and ultra-supercritical coal fired power plants cost around $2,500 per KW to build.

IGCC power plants cost twice as much to build. The Future Gen plant to be built in southern Illinois is expected to cost $5,500 per KW.

Proponents of IGCC power plants say the cost of electricity won’t rise by very much.

If IGCC plants cost twice as much to build, use the same resource, i.e., coal, have a more complicated system for extracting hydrogen and CO2, it could lead people to think electricity might also cost twice as much.

TSAugust

August 1, 2010


China’s Temperatures

Temperature data from China would seem to confirm that the high temperatures recorded in Europe around 1100 AD were worldwide.

These temperature records from China go back 2,000 years and support the hypothesis that changes in temperature are normal and have nothing to do with CO2 emissions.

The temperature records also confirm that the little ice age was a worldwide event, and not some local aberration in Europe and North America. The records further discredit the Mann Hockey Stick.

The evidence is mounting that CO2 emissions have little to do with global warming.

Temp Charts

China 2,000 Year Temperature Reconstructions

This chart showing a plot of the temperature reconstructions has the cold periods, shaded in grey with rising temperatures after the cold period in 1800. The chart also shows periods of warming dating back nearly 2,000 years which also suggests that temperature changes are perfectly normal and have nothing to do with CO2 emissions.

TSAugust

July 18, 2010


Milk Pollution

The EPA has established that milk is a pollutant.

Yes, the EPA classifies milk as oil because it contains a percentage of animal fat.

Milk is a threat to America’s waterways, according to the Sierra Club. According to the Sierra Club, it doesn’t make any difference that milk is bio-degradable.

Poor Daisy and Elmer have now been caught-up in the EPA’s ever widening web.

If the rule goes into effect, dairy farmers will have to establish catch basins and drains and then dispose of the spilt milk in a manner that doesn’t allow it to get into the ground.

They will need to spend money for an inspector to certify their milk is safe.

I can see it now.

A milk truck crashes on the highway and milk is spilled over the roadway and into the field alongside the road.

Hazmat teams dressed in moon suits are dispatched to the scene to clean up the spill of hazardous milk. Traffic is stopped for hours so as not to become contaminated with spilt milk.

The dairy that owned the milk truck is fined for violating the clean water act.

Whoever said, “don’t cry over spilt milk”?

Thanks to the EPA we must now cry over spilt milk.

TSAugust

July 11, 2010


The Fourth of July

As the Declaration was about to be signed, John Adams wrote his wife Abigail, [“the day] ought to be solemnized with pomp and parade, with shows, games, sports, guns, bells, bonfires, and illuminations, from one end of this continent to the other, from this time forward forever more.”

Today, as John Adams wished, we celebrate the fourth of July with illuminations, pomp and parades from one end of the continent to the other.

Eleven years later, the fragile thirteen states drew up a Constitution.

When asked, as he left the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia, “what kind of government have you given us?” Ben Franklin said, “A Republic if you can keep it.”

That statement is as important today as it was in 1787.

The United States is a Republic.

Not a Democracy. Not a Democratic Republic.

 Just a Republic.

This is worth remembering because we can lose our Republic where the constitution is the law of the land.

The Constitution can be changed by amending it as times and conditions change.

Article V establishes how to amend the Constitution.

This is at the heart of the current debate about a living constitution. There is a belief that the Constitution should be amended through legal interpretation by Judges, even though the Constitution established the means for making amendments.

This indicates that some people have given up on the Constitution, because they aren’t willing to follow its dictates. If they have given up on the Constitution, does it mean they have also given up on the Republic? And if so, what form of government are they proposing?

TSAugust

July 4, 2010


Carbon Trap,

Senators in favor of cap and trade, or whatever is the currently favored name, consistently try to minimize how bad their legislation is by hiding the true cost of carbon credits.

A case in point is the “Cap and Dividend” bill introduced by Senators Cantwell (D) and Collins (r ).

The bill establishes a minimum price for carbon of $7.00, which sounds reasonable to the casual reader.

However, the bill then establishes a formula for how the minimum price will increase annually. The formula is 6% capital cost plus inflation plus a 0.5% kicker. Inflation, conservatively, will be 3% annually.

Using information from the bill, the formula is $7 times (6% + 3% + 0.5%) compounded over the next 38 years, beginning in 2013, until the year 2050 when CO2 emissions are to be cut 83% from 2005 levels.

The minimum price for carbon increases from a benign $7 to $220 in 2050.

This bill also establishes a slush fund equaling 25% of the money received from auctioning carbon credits.

Purportedly, this is to be used to pay for developing so-called clean energy, but it will be discretionary for the administration and Congress to define who and what gets the money.

The balance of the money collected from the sale of carbon credits is to be returned to qualified individuals. Qualified individuals are any person living in the United States lawfully.

Qualified individuals would therefore include foreigners living in the United States who are students, workers, diplomats, and members of the United Nations.

Corporations buying the carbon credits will increase their prices to cover the cost of the carbon credits. High income families who use more electricity and gasoline will pay more due to these higher prices, but will receive the same rebate from the government as will low income families. The bill becomes another method for redistributing wealth.

This and all the other cap and trade bills ignore the fact that it’s not possible to cut CO2 emissions without causing a shortage of electricity (See Memo) and economic hardship due to a loss of jobs.

TSAugust

June 27, 2010

 


Cost of Electricity - PARTS I & II

Understanding the cost of generating electricity can help people objectively evaluate various options.

Individuals and media outlets frequently use a wide array of inconsistent costs when comparing different methods of generating electricity. Some people deliberately sow confusion in support of their political preferences.

Here are some facts that will help clarify costs.

 

Three costs should be evaluated.

  • Fuel and operating costs, expressed as cents per kilowatt hour

  • Costs including depreciation, expressed as cents per kilowatt hour

  • Cost of construction, expressed as dollars per Kilowatt

Each provides a slightly different understanding about a specific method of generating electricity. Comparing these costs may also provide an insight into the future cost of generating electricity.

Two additional factors need to be clarified in any discussion of costs. These are important because not all methods of generating electricity are equal.

  1. Capacity factor

Capacity factor is a measure of how much electricity a particular installation can deliver during a year. A 1 MW unit with a capacity factor of 30% delivers one third the electricity of a 1 MW unit with a capacity factor of 90%.

  1. Base load generation

A base load unit can be relied on to deliver electricity at virtually any time: The electricity it generates is dispatchable to the grid. A generation method that cannot be relied on for a steady flow of electricity has less value.

Table I shows various approximate costs for different methods of generating electricity. These costs are being refined so that better estimates will be available over time. The costs shown in Table I are sufficiently accurate to allow making comparisons.

TABLE I

Method

Fuel & Operating Costs

Costs incl. Depreciation

Construction Costs

Traditional Coal1

$0.02 /kWh

$0.04 /kWh

$2,000 /KW

Ultra Supercritical Coal2

$0.02 /kWh

$0.06 /kWh

$2,500 /KW

Natural Gas Combined Cycle3

NA

$0.06 /kWh

$1,200 /KW

Nuclear4

$0.02 /kWh

$0.09 /kWh

$4,000 /KW

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle5

NA

NA

$5,000 /KW

  1. Traditional coal refers to the existing fleet of over 400 coal fired power plants in the United States. Construction costs for traditional coal fired power plants, built in the recent past, have varied from $1,500 to $2,000 as the result of varying costs of materials.

  2. Ultra-supercritical coal refers to modern coal fired power plants that operate at very high temperatures and pressures. Both supercritical and ultra-supercritical units are considered in this category.

  3. Natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) refers to using a gas turbine to drive a generator, where the gas turbine’s exhaust is used to create steam in a boiler for powering a steam turbine which also drives a generator. Open cycle gas turbines (not included in Table I) are typically used for peak loads rather than for base load.

Fuel and operating costs are approximate. Reliable data is currently not available for NGCC units due to the recent increase in the supply of natural gas and the resulting reduction in price.

  1. Nuclear construction costs are for the type of unit for which applications have recently been submitted to the NRC for construction and operating licenses, while fuel and operating costs are based on units currently in operation.

  2. Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) units gasify the coal rather than burn it in a boiler. The gasses (primarily hydrogen and methane) are burned in a gas turbine that drives a generator, where the gas turbine’s exhaust is used to create steam in a boiler for powering a steam turbine which also drives a generator. The CO2 resulting from the gasification process is separated from the combustible gasses.

Reliable data is also not available for IGCC plants with only two IGCC plants having been built in the United States. Neither of these plants were built to allow the capture of CO2. A third IGCC power plant is under construction in Ohio where CO2 is to be captured and sequestered.

 

Table II ranks the methods for generating electricity in terms of the pollutants they emit, such as NOx, SOx, and Hg. (Scientifically, CO2 is not a pollutant.)

Table II, ranked from lowest to highest emissions.

TABLE II

Method

Comments

Nuclear

Spent fuel must be stored or reprocessed.

Natural Gas Combined Cycle

Produces lowest emissions of NOx & SOx. Has no emissions of Hg.

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle

Can capture >90% of NOx, SOx and Hg.

Ultra Supercritical Coal1

Has a thermal efficiency of over 40%. Emissions of NOx, SOx and Hg reduced 85% to 90% when compared with traditional coal.

Traditional Coal1

Existing fleet has a thermal efficiency of 34%. Emissions of NOx, SOx, are largely captured from the flu gas. Hg capture has been difficult.

  1. Captured emissions of NOx, SOx and Hg must be stored or processed.

Conclusions

Nuclear has the lowest emissions of pollutants and also doesn’t emit CO2. Nuclear is the most expensive in terms of construction costs, but is very competitive in terms of fuel and operating costs. Its costs for generating electricity are higher than the costs for natural gas and ultra-supercritical coal.

Natural gas combined cycle has low emissions and produces electricity at low cost.

Ultra-supercritical and supercritical coal have low emissions and produce electricity at low cost. They have vastly better thermal efficiencies than traditional coal.

Integrated gasification combined cycle has construction costs twice as great as ultra-supercritical coal and will probably produce electricity at a very high cost, perhaps two to three times higher than ultra-supercritical coal.

TSAugust

May 30, June 6 and June 13, 2010


Electricity Shortage by 2050

The Kerry-Lieberman “American Power Act” in the Senate, again raises the specter of cutting CO2 emissions 80% by 2050.

It can be shown that there will be a shortage of electricity in 2050 unless over 300 nuclear or 300 Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) power plants are built by 2050.

Nuclear power may be dying in the United States (see May 16, article). IGCC plants rely on carbon capture and sequestration which are still experimental.

While the newest supercritical coal fired power plants cost $2,000 per KW, IGCC plants cost over twice as much at $5,000 per KW, while nuclear power plants are expected to cost $4,000 per KW.

The memorandum Carbon Cap & Trade Would Cause Energy Shortages and Rationing by 2050 establishes why there will be shortages of electricity if there is cap & trade of any kind on carbon or CO2.

The full memorandum is available here, on TSAugust.com.

The new “American Power Act” (APA) calls for cutting CO2 emissions 80% for capped sectors1 by 2050 and establishes a ceiling price for carbon that could reach $400 by 2050.2

 

TSAugust

May 23, 2010

 

 

  1. Reduction in CO2 emissions for entire economy is not yet clear.

  2. Preliminary information shows that the APA will establish a ceiling price of $25 (presumably per ton) on carbon which increases at 5% per year, plus inflation. Inflation has been running at 2% annually. At 7%, the $25 ceiling price doubles every ten years, thereby reaching $400 in 2050.


Is Nuclear Dead in U.S.?

It’s time to ask the question:

Is the nuclear industry dead in the United States?

A decade ago it was believed there would be a nuclear renaissance. At that time, it was forecast that over twenty new nuclear plants would be built by the mid 2020’s. A decade ago a new nuclear power plant was estimated to cost around $2,000 per KW.

Today, it’s estimated that a new nuclear power plant will cost $4,000 per KW; and there is concern the cost will rise further.

Today, there is talk of a “first wave” of seven new nuclear power plants, instead of over twenty as originally envisioned: And, these “first” seven face renewed opposition. For example, a Georgia, Superior Court judge recently ruled that the state public service commission acted illegally when it certified the two proposed Vogtle reactors.

Until recently, it was assumed that all 104 existing nuclear reactors would be relicensed for a second twenty years. Now, there is concern that the Vermont, Yankee and New York, Indian Point reactors won’t be relicensed. In addition, two California reactors may have to be shut down because they will be prohibited from using ocean water for cooling.

Regardless of how many of the 104 are relicensed for another twenty years of operation, they will all have to be relicensed again for an additional twenty years beginning in 2030. By 2050, all but two of the 104 plants will have to be shut down when their licenses expire unless they receive the second license renewal.

The clearest signal that nuclear is dead, is when opponents of nuclear power begin to support loan guarantees for new nuclear power plants. The administration supports $54 billion in loan guarantees as will the new Kerry –Lieberman comprehensive climate change bill. Both the administration and Senator Kerry have opposed nuclear in the past, and they are fully aware of the problems being encountered by nuclear power.

If only a few new nuclear reactors are built over the next three decades, and if existing nuclear plants are not relicensed now and again by 2050, nuclear power (as we know it today)1 will be dead in the United States.

 

  1. New compact or mini nuclear reactors are being developed and they could represent a new phase in the development of nuclear power. They are also being opposed by various groups such as the Union of Concerned Scientists.

 

TSAugust

May 16, 2010


Electrical Efficiency Issue

Can gains in efficiency offset the lost generating capacity caused by cap & trade regulations that cut CO2 emissions 80%?

It has been estimated there will be a 24% shortfall in generating capacity in 2050 with cap & trade legislation.1

Some people have claimed improvements in electrical efficiency can offset any lost capacity caused by cap & trade legislation.

Efficiency can be improved by:

  • Using more efficient appliances in homes, business and government

  • Reducing transmission losses on the grid

A simple example for improving efficiency in the home is to use compact fluorescent lamps (CFL). The EIA estimated that replacing incandescent bulbs that burn more than four hours per day with CFL’s would save 35% of the electricity used for lighting. This amounts to less than 1% of the electricity generated in 2009.

Refrigerators are the largest user of electricity among household appliances. Replacing all refrigerators with energy star2 units would reduce total electricity usage by ½ of one percent (0.49%).

Similarly small savings are achieved by replacing home air conditioning units with energy star units.

Improving efficiency on the grid can be accomplished by reducing transmission losses.

The Department of Energy has set a goal for improving grid efficiency by 40 percent by 2030.

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) estimates that achieving this goal would save 54 terawatt hours which would be 1% of the electricity generated in 2030.3

EPRI’s efforts to improve grid efficiency are interesting, but ephemeral. One experiment will replace existing wiring on two transmission lines with new trapezoidal wire (See diagram). The shape of the trapezoidal wires fills the voids created when round wire is used.  This type of wiring would make economic sense when building new transmission lines, but would be hard to justify economically for replacing existing transmission lines unless the increased carrying capacity would obviate the need for building a new transmission line.

These examples illustrate that, without revolutionary breakthroughs, it will not be possible to achieve sufficient improvements in electrical efficiencies to offset the 24% loss in generating capacity resulting from cap & trade legislation.

TSAugust

May 9, 2010

 

 

  1. Carbon cap & trade would cause energy shortages and rationing by 2050, by Donn Dears, 2009

  2. Assumes that energy star refrigerators and air conditioners reduce electricity consumption by 13%.

  3. Electricity usage in 2050 is based on a 1 percent growth rate in electricity usage. The EIA forecasts a 1% growth rate through 2030. Population growth between the 2000 census and 2050 is 0.9%.

Cable


Conservation Using R.O.I.

Conservation is a way to reduce the use of energy. Some consider conservation and efficiency as being synonymous, though technically they may have slightly different meanings. Improving efficiency is inherently good.

But is conservation always good?

A simple example is the compact fluorescent lamp (CFL).

A CFL for a standard lamp, not an overhead spotlight, costs about $2 more than a 100 watt incandescent bulb. A CFL uses 75% less electricity than a 100 watt incandescent bulb. When electricity costs ten cents per kWh, the CFL can save $0.075 per kWh. It would take 267 hours of continuous operation for a CFL to pay for the extra $2 it costs compared with a 100 watt incandescent bulb.

If used four hours per day it would take around 67 days, or a little over two months, for the CFL to pay for itself.

Clearly, when used for 4 hours per day the CFL is a good investment.

But does that mean every incandescent bulb should be replaced with a CFL?

A bulb in a clothes closet may get used for only ten minutes a day. In this instance it would take over four years for a CFL to pay for itself.

An incandescent bulb in a broom closet may get used for less than five minutes a day. At five minutes per day it would take a CFL over nine years to pay for its higher cost.

Money isn’t free, so it’s important to prioritize investments.

Return on investment (ROI) is how businesses prioritize their investment dollars.

Clearly not every incandescent bulb should be replaced with a CFL.

An ROI of 20% would indicate that an investment should pay for itself in five years.

An ROI of 20% is very often the cut-off point used by businesses, though some investments are required to have larger ROI’s.

For example, an investment in a new process that will become quickly obsolete could be required to have an ROI of 30% or more.

The corollary for a home owner would be the uncertainty of how soon the owner might move. A young family may move every two or three years, in which case the family should require an ROI of 30% or higher.

Using ROI is a sound method for determining which investments should be made for conserving energy.

TSAugust

May 2, 2010


Cost of Electricity with IGCC

There is continuing pressure in Congress to establish a cap & trade program for cutting CO2 emissions.

With nearly 40% of CO2 emissions caused by the generation of electricity, there has been a debate as to whether controlling ()i.e., cutting) CO2 emission would result in higher rates for electricity.

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) coal fired power plants are one way in which CO2 emissions can be captured and then sequestered underground.

Alternatives such as wind and solar are at least twice as costly as electricity from traditional coal fired power plants. Will IGCC electricity also result in consumers paying more for their electricity?

If it costs more to build a power plant it’s obvious the price of electricity will be higher, assuming the cost of fuel remains the same.

The cost of building IGCC plants with carbon capture will be around $5,000 per KW.*

The cost of building a coal fired power plant is around $2,000 per KW.**

In both cases the cost of coal will be the same.

It’s clear that with cap & trade legislation the cost of electricity to consumers will be far higher than it is today.

 

Notes:

 * The cost of constructing the FutureGen plant in Illinois is estimated at $5,500 per KW.

The cost of the Duke Energy’s Edwardsport IGCC plant in Indiana is estimated to cost $4,500 per KW.

** The cost of building new supercritical or ultra supercritical coal fired power plants with vastly lower emissions is around $2,000

TSAugust

April 28, 2010


Denmark’s Folly

Proponents of distributed generation, wind energy and the smart grid point to Denmark as the poster child for these proposals.

Unfortunately the postal child is one of waste and unnecessary investment.

Steve Pullins, a member of the smart grid team, made a presentation for the National Energy Technology Laboratory using a slide to highlight Denmark’s distributed generation system and smart grid.

Unintentionally, the slide demonstrated the waste inherent in Denmark’s grid.

Denmark Gen

Consumption has remained fairly constant since 1990, but a huge amount of new generating capacity has been installed, primarily wind and Combined Heat and Power.

Referring to the slide, approximately 3,000 MW of excess generating capacity was added by 2010. At a cost of $2,000 per KW, the total amount of excess capacity cost $6 Billion. Denmark is a small country with a population of 5.5 million people, so the waste per person was over $1,000.

For a country the size of the United States, the waste would have been over $300 Billion.

TSAugust

April 18, 2010


Ben Franklin

Ben Franklin had it right: A penny saved is a penny earned.

Another maxim in industry is: Follow the pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves.

Unfortunately, the current energy policy of the United States ignores these time proven truths.

Current energy policy advocates using the most expensive methods for generating electricity. Wind, PV solar, concentrating solar, hydro kinetics and other alternative renewable sources are anywhere from twice as expensive to four times as expensive as the least costly methods; coal and natural gas.

Renewable portfolio standards mandate that 20% or more of electricity be produced using these inefficient methods.

California, Colorado and other states are mandating RPS greater than 20%.

This results in 20% or more of the electricity generated in the United States using inefficient methods that waste money. Billions of dollars will be wasted by mandating RPS. These billions could be used for improving productivity or allowing families to invest in new homes or other goods, including energy saving appliances.

When money is wasted, the county suffers.

TSAugust

April 11, 2010


Fracking

(This article expands on an earlier article.)

Four years ago, experts were saying the United States had a shortage of natural gas.

It was thought that liquid natural gas (LNG) would have to be imported and that a dozen new LNG terminals would have to be built.

Today, due to a new technology called “fracking”, the United States has a surfeit of natural gas: Fracking has released natural gas that has been trapped in shale.

America now has sufficient natural gas to last for 100 years.

Once again there is a threat that government regulations will curtail the use of fracking and thrust America into an unnecessary shortage of natural gas.

Fracturing, known as fracking, is accomplished by injecting fluids under high pressure into shale to fracture the shale formation so that oil and gas can flow to a well where it can be brought to the surface. Until the advent of fracking, natural gas was too tightly locked in shale to be extracted.

In 2004 the EPA issued a report indicating that fracking did not pose a threat to the drinking water supply. The report listed fluids and additives used in fracking, and except for diesel oil, none represented a threat to humans in the minute quantities left in the ground. The identity of nearly all fluids and additives is well known and not a secret. The secret is in how these fluids and additives are used.

The EPA study said: “None of the other constituents in Table 4-1 [except those in diesel oil] appear on the Agency's draft Contaminant Candidate List (CCL).”

Most of the liquids used in fracking (68 to 82%) are drawn out of the ground before gas production begins. Only a small percentage remains in the ground. In addition, the quantity of additives, other than sand, mixed with the fluids is small; perhaps a few gallons per 1,000 gallons of fluid. The sand or other granular substances are used to prop open the fractures and not allow them to close when the pressurized fluid is extracted. Sand is obviously a natural substance that will not contaminate water supplies.

The three largest service companies agreed not to use diesel oil as a fracking liquid, and these three companies performed 95% of fracking done at the time of the study.

Extreme environmentalists are now trying to get the EPA to regulate fracking. One approach they are promoting is to require that only drinking water can be used for fluids in fracking. This will automatically create a conflict between drilling companies and communities over the use of water. This will be devastating in the West where drinking water is in short supply.

The intent is obvious: Shut down fracking and deny the United States the natural gas it needs.

Source: EPA report, “Evaluation of Impacts to Underground Sources of Drinking Water by Hydraulic Fracturing of Coal bed Methane Reservoirs.” June, 2004

 

TSAugust

April 4, 2010


Challenges to EPA Endangerment Finding

The EPA recently issued an endangerment finding claiming that CO2 emissions are a threat to the health of Americans. This finding will allow the EPA to regulate CO2 emissions, including those from power plants, and, at the other end of the spectrum, from lawnmowers.

Many organizations are preparing challenges to the EPA’s endangerment finding.

The challenges will include questioning the finding’s constitutionality, whether the EPA relied on flawed data, or data not subject to rigorous scientific analysis, or that the EPA did not itself conduct scientific analysis.

One of the early challenges has been made by the Peabody Energy Company.

Jay Lehr, Ph.D. of the Heartland Institute has analyzed the Peabody petition and prepared a summary of the key points contained in the petition.

Go to www.heartland.org for details.

TSAugust

March 28, 2010


Natural Gas Bonanza

Four years ago, experts said the United States had a shortage of natural gas.

Today, the U.S. has a glut of natural gas.

What happened in just four years for the U.S. to go from shortage to glut?

Fracking, in combination with horizontal drilling, has created a revolutionary change in the availability of natural gas.

Fracking involves injecting water and sand under high pressure into wells that are drilled horizontally in shale.

The water fractures the shale and releases the gas trapped in the shale. The particles of sand maintain openings in the shale so natural gas can continue to flow.

The surfeit of natural gas means there are few reasons for building new terminals for importing liquid natural gas (LNG).

It means that more natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants can be built without fear of NG shortages. NGCC produces electricity inexpensively and produces fewer CO2 emissions than coal.

Fracking should be seen as a boon for America’s environment by environmentalists. (Fewer LNG terminals and fewer CO2 emissions.)

Fracking could free Europe from the grips of Russia’s virtual monopoly of Natural gas, which makes NG available at lower cost for NGCC power plants and home heating in Europe.

Unfortunately, extreme environmentalists are opposing Fracking on the basis that it might contaminate fresh water supplies.

The fear is misplaced because fracking takes place far below the water table for potable water, and if there is water in the area, it is brine.

Innovation has once again eliminated a resource shortage.

TSAugust

March 14, 2010


Smart Meters, Threat, Weapon or Opportunity

Utilities may view smart meters as a threat, or as a weapon or as an opportunity to increase revenues while improving service to their customers. Customers may also view them as a threat and an opportunity.

Background

Smart meters, in conjunction with a rate structure that varies with the cost of generating electricity over a twenty-four hour period, will allow customers to move their electric loads to when the price for electricity is lowest.

An important issue for the utility is how to develop a time of day pricing structure that reflects the cost of generating electricity during the day.

Costs and prices would be highest during periods of peak load when extra generating equipment is brought on line to meet demand.

The additional equipment may sit idle for twenty-two hours every day and only be used when demand for electricity peaks. While sitting idle, the equipment makes poor use of the financial investment. Accountants may say the entire investment should be recovered by a rate based on two hours usage each day.

This would contrast with rates for electricity from base load generating equipment operating twenty-four hours a day where the investment would be spread across a greater number of hours.

Equipment used for meeting peak loads may also be less efficient than base load generating equipment.

Utilities also must keep sufficient reserve capacity in place to meet unexpected demand. The typical reserve capacity is approximately 10% higher than the summer or winter peak loads. Lowering the peaks will result in smaller investments in reserve generating capacity.

The high cost of meeting peak demand gives utilities great incentive to minimize the peaks that occur in the summer and winter.

They can do this by shedding load when demand begins to peak, or they can have customers shift their loads to the nighttime when demand is low.

Utilities enter into agreements with industrial and commercial customers to allow the utilities to automatically cut the amount of electricity delivered to each customer by cutting predetermined circuits at the customer’s location, thereby shedding load until the period of peak demand passes.

Industrial customers may be able to shift loads from daytime to nighttime so as to avoid using electricity during periods of peak demand. A factory might, for example, be able to operate a heat treating oven at night.

Threat

With this background, it’s possible to examine whether utilities view residential customers as a threat or an opportunity.

Residential customers currently pay a flat rate for electricity no matter the time of day. The average flat rate is around 10 cents per kWh.

When a utility installs smart meters it needs to establish time of day pricing, where it charges more for electricity used during peak hours and less for electricity used during off-peak hours.

If residential customers shift some of their load to off-peak hours where the cost of electricity is lower, the utility will receive less revenue. This might be acceptable to a utility if it reduced peak load, but the activity might be one that is seldom used during periods of peak load. Dishwashers could be operated at night when rates were low which would result in the utility loosing revenue with no offsetting benefits.

Shifting loads to obtain lower rates, could result in lower revenues for the utility and be seen as a threat by the utility. Realistically, however, there are very few activities that residential customers can shift to off-peak hours.

The major residential loads are air conditioning, refrigerators and lighting. These loads can’t be shifted to off-peak hours.

Smart meters are not a threat to utilities: They could, however, be a threat to residential customers if the meter can control the thermostat.

If smart meters can control thermostats, utilities, or the government, could control the temperature in a person’s home. A utility could, for example, raise the setting to 85oin the summer, overriding the customer’s setting of 70o.

 

Weapon

Utilities could use smart meters as a weapon to force customers to reduce their use of electricity during peak hours.

Utilities could do this by establishing extremely high rates during peak periods. Peaks are routinely caused by air conditioning loads, so extremely high rates could result in homeowners shutting off their air conditioning to avoid paying the extremely high rates.

These rates may actually reflect the full cost of supplying electricity during peak periods, but would place a huge burden on homeowners: Especially low income homeowners..

If smart meters are to become commonplace, it will be necessary to ensure that utilities can’t use the rate structure as a weapon to force homeowners to change their behavior, while still ensuring that utilities receive annual revenues comparable to their revenues before smart meters were installed.

Off-peak rates need to be low enough to encourage customers to shift usage to off peak hours. For the near future, there won’t be a compelling reason to establish low off-peak rates since homeowners have few opportunities to shift loads to the nighttime.

It will be essential, however, to establish low off-peak rates when Plug-in electric vehicles become available in significant quantities. Low off-peak rates will encourage owners of Plug-in vehicles to recharge batteries at night rather than during the day where recharging would exacerbate peak loads.

 

Opportunity

Utilities have a very large investment in equipment that sits idle or is only partially used during nighttime hours.

When and if Plug-in electric vehicles become prevalent, utilities have a huge opportunity to make use of this underused equipment to increase revenues.

Low off-peak rates will induce owners of Plug-in vehicles to recharge their vehicle’s batteries at night, during off-peak hours.

These revenues can be highly profitable even if off-peak rates are lower than day time rates. The additional costs incurred by increased operations during off-peak hours are variable costs, primarily for fuel, e.g., coal or natural gas. Maintenance costs will also increase due to the equipment being operated for more hours during the year. For the most part, utilities will increase revenues while fixed costs remain unchanged.

Utilities need to develop time of day pricing that maximizes revenues without charging extremely high rates during peak hours, and with-off peak rates high enough to offset any under-charging during peak hours. However, off-peak rates need to be low enough to encourage increased nighttime (off-peak) usage of electricity.

Plug-in electric vehicles represent the greatest opportunity for utilities to increase revenues and profits since the advent of air conditioning.

There is a caveat.

This opportunity will not materialize if Plug-in electric vehicles do not substantially replace today’s gasoline driven vehicles; in which case, investment in smart meters may be largely wasted.

 

TSAugust

February 28, and March 7, 2010


Bogus CHP Efficiencies

Combined Heat and Power (CHP) takes steam from the turbine driving a generator and uses it to heat buildings or for use in manufacturing processes.

CHP used to be called Co-Generation.

Some organizations, especially environmental organizations, claim that CHP is much more efficient than coal fired power plants. They cite CHP efficiencies as high as 90%.

They then compare this high efficiency with the average thermal efficiency of this nation’s coal fired power plants which is 32%.

The pseudo-thermal CHP efficiency is bogus because it combines the value of high energy density electricity with the low value energy of steam: It combines apples with oranges.

For example:

An automobile’s engine using gasoline has considerable horse power and also heats water in the engine’s cooling system. The hot water is then used to heat the car during the winter. While this takes advantage of the heat in the water, the water doesn’t have the power to drive the automobile. Gasoline has high energy density while hot water has a low energy density.

It makes economic sense to use the exhaust steam, that would otherwise pass through a condenser and be returned to the boiler feed water system, to heat buildings. This assumes that the cost of the insulated steam piping and condensate return piping isn’t greater than the value of the heat provided by the steam.

CHP systems lend themselves to situations where the power plant is located in close proximity to the buildings being heated. These conditions are more prevalent in Europe.

Consolidated Edison in New York City uses steam to heat buildings, and has been doing so for nearly one hundred years.

If the steam is extracted before it passes through the last few stages of the steam turbine it can actually reduce the thermal efficiency of the power plant. Extracting steam in this manner prevents the steam from doing useful work.

CHP has its place, but shouldn’t be seen as a panacea for improving energy utilization.

Note: A more detailed description of thermal efficiencies is in the February 11, 2010 issue of Power Magazine.

TSAugust

February 21, 2010


Snow Job

"Record snowfall illustrates the obvious: The global warming fraud is without equal in modern science.

The fundamental problems exposed about climate-change theory undermine the very basis of scientific inquiry. Huge numbers of researchers refuse to provide their data to other scientists. Some referenced data is found not to have existed. The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report that global warming activists continually cite invented a large number of purported facts.

  • The Himalayan glaciers were supposed to disappear as soon as 2035. The United Nations didn’t base this hysteria on an academic study. Instead, it relied on a news story that interviewed a single Indian glaciologist in 1999. Syed Hasnain, the glaciologist in question, says he was misquoted and provided no date to the reporter. The doomsday account was simply made up, and the United Nations never bothered to confirm the claim.

  • Because of purported global warming, the world supposedly “suffered rapidly rising costs due to extreme weather-related events since the 1970s.” The U.N. cited one unpublished study to prove this. When the research eventually was published in 2008 after the IPCC report was released, the authors backpedaled: “We find insufficient evidence to claim a statistical relationship between global temperature increase and catastrophe losses.”

  • Up to 40 percent of the Amazon rain forest was said to be at risk because of rising global temperatures. Again, the U.N. didn’t cite any academic studies but merely one non-refereed report authored by two non-scientists, one of whom worked for the World Wildlife Fund, an activist organization.

  • The U.N. dramatically claimed that 55 percent of the Netherlands is below sea level when the accurate portion is 26 percent.

…..

Man-made global warming theory isn’t backed up by science; it’s a hoax. The fact that the world has been asked to spend tens of trillions of dollars on global warming solutions without being able to evaluate the data upon which the claims were made should have been the first warning that something was seriously wrong. The public and world leaders have been sold expensive snake oil by charlatans like Mr. Pachauri. It’s time to admit it’s all baloney and move on.”

 

 Extracts from Washington Times Editorial February 11, 2010

Highlighting by TSAugust

 

TSAugust

February 14, 2010


Clean Coal?

"Clean Coal” elicits multiple responses.

Extreme environmentalists respond reflexively by saying “clean coal” is an oxymoron.

Some people point to using variations of the Fischer-Tropsch method to make liquid fuels from coal or for using coal in Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle power plants.

Another view is that new super critical and ultra super critical coal fired power plants are a clean use of coal.

These modern coal fired power plants are a vast improvement over those built in the past. The following is a quote from Energy for America.”

“The efficiency of the fleet of existing coal plants is 32%, while the efficiency of super critical and ultra super critical pulverized coal power plants is 38.5% and 43.4% respectively.

These represent a 20% and 35% improvement in efficiency, respectively.

In so far as ultra supercritical pulverized coal plants are concerned, the 35% improvement could mean they would use 35% less coal; and, interestingly, produce 35% less CO2. Emissions of NOx, SO2, particulates (PM) and mercury are also substantially reduced. One analysis shows that NOx is reduced by 86%, SO2 by 98%, particulate matter by 99.8%, and mercury by 90%.”

Using super critical and ultra super critical coal fired power plants can produce electricity inexpensively with a low level of pollutants such as NOx, SO2 PM’s and mercury.

 

Note: Energy for America will be published in pdf format in March 2010.

TSAugust

February 7, 2010


ICE (Satire)

A proposal is circulating around Washington to ban the use of refrigerators, and to replace refrigerators with ice-boxes.

An insider, speaking off the record, said, “Using ice-boxes is a brilliant idea for creating jobs and cutting CO2 emissions.”

When pressed for details he said, “Ice will be made during off peak hours when wind energy is most plentiful, and then the ice will be delivered to homes twice each week.”

An analyst described the process in greater detail.

He pointed out that Ice boxes were used throughout America before GE introduced the Monitor Top refrigerator in 1927. The iceman delivered ice twice each week, and ice-boxes kept food cold and safe.

Banning the use of refrigerators will create jobs as manufacturers build enough ice-boxes to replace all the refrigerators in America. Before 1927, ice picks were ubiquitous throughout America. A new supply will have to be built, which will also create more new jobs. The steel industry will also benefit from the need for thousands of new ice tongs.

Ice will be delivered to homes in specially designed, environmentally friendly electric trucks, insulated to protect the ice from summer heat. Building these trucks will create clean jobs.

Delivering ice to every home in America, twice each week, will require thousands of deliverymen and women. These will be new, clean jobs for the new economy.

A Senator on the Environment and Public Works Committee noted that refrigerators are the largest user of electricity, after heating, ventilation and cooling. Refrigerators consumed 156 billion kWh of electricity in 2001.

Replacing refrigerators with ice-boxes will create thousands of new, clean jobs for the 21st century economy, while reducing CO2 emissions by using wind energy to produce the ice and eliminating refrigerators that use “dirty” electricity.

Slogans in the next election are bound to include “I Like Ice” and “Make Ice Not CO2”.

Satire By Donn Dears for TSAugust

TSAugust

January 31, 2010


Transmission Line Losses

Losses from HVAC transmission lines are from resistance, capacitance and inductance.

Losses from HVDC lines are only from resistance.

In addition, it requires three lines (i.e., cables) for AC transmission and only two for HVDC transmission.

For like voltages, cable sizes and distances, HVDC has fewer transmission line losses than HVAC.

The cost of converting AC to DC and then reconverting it from DC to AC is very high.

Because of the conversion costs there is a crossover point, in terms of the length of the transmission line, before HVDC is less costly than HVAC. A quick number might be 300 miles, but that will vary with a number of factors such as the cost of the right-of-way.

HVDC could be used over environmentally sensitive areas or underwater, such as crossing Long Island Sound. It is also being proposed for tying together the three U.S. grids.

The three grids, one covering the Eastern U.S., one covering the Western U.S. and one for Texas all operate at different frequencies. The DC transmission lines would isolate the three grids from each other, but allow electricity to pass between the grids.

 

Notes:

AC has three phases and one cable is required for each phase. DC only requires two cables.

Each grid operates at differing frequencies at any moment in time. Trying to connect grids while their frequencies are different will create large forces that will seriously damage the system.

TSAugust

January 24, 2010


Capacity Factor

Capacity factor is an important measurement for evaluating different power generation methods.

Essentially, capacity factor measures the amount of electricity actually generated over a year compared with the amount of electricity that could theoretically be produced over a year based on the nameplate rating.

Capacity factors for various power generation methods are shown here:

  •  Nuclear; over 90%.

  • Coal; around 85%

  • Natural Gas Combined Cycle; approaching 85%

  • Wind; 30%

  • Concentrating solar; 22% (possibly increasing to around 30% with heat storage in salt.)

  • Photo voltaic solar; 16%

For example: It requires 2,000 wind turbines rated 1.5 MW1 to generate as much electricity as a single 1,000 MW nuclear power plant.

It’s important to be alert to differing capacity factors when reading newspaper and magazine articles. Most reporters do not understand capacity factor, and as a result make erroneous claims.

For example on January 9th, 2010 an article in the NY Times said that 2,000 MW of concentrating solar “is equivalent to the output of a couple of nuclear power plants”. Obviously 2,000 MW of concentrating solar will produce only about 25% of the electricity than would a couple of nuclear power plants.

Capacity factor is not the only criteria for evaluating different methods of producing electricity.

Some power generation methods are intermittent and thus unreliable and therefore require costly back-up with gas turbines.

 

1: Average size of wind turbines installed over the past three years.

 

TSAugust

January 17, 2010


Demand Response

Demand response is touted as an important feature of the smart grid.

It allows the utility, the consumer or a “third party” to control the use of electricity in people’s homes (See below).

So long as the homeowner has control of his or her thermostat, or of the refrigerator and other important appliances, the idea has some merit.

This requires the utility to contact the homeowner prior to cutting the electricity. Obviously, when there is a brief overload the utility doesn’t have the time to make the contact. 

There are two ways the timing issue can be resolved.

  1. The utility could obtain written permission in advance that would allow it to cut the electricity (or reduce the voltage) to the home.

  2. The second approach is to allow the utility, without permission from the home owner, to cut the electricity to the home.

It is the second approach that is advocated by certain government officials and those who want to control the use of electricity.

Note the term “third party” in the above definition. This unnamed group would have control over every person’s use of electricity if this aspect of the smart grid is implemented.

They could control how warm or cool people could keep their homes. They could limit the total amount of electricity home owners could use or control the type of appliances approved for use.

California regulators in 2009 attempted to require utilities to have the ability to control people’s thermostats. People opposed this effort, so it has temporarily been set aside.

  

Note:  The following was taken from a white paper issued by the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers. “A key feature of the Smart Grid is Demand Response, where the consumer, utility or designated third party can reduce the consumer’s energy consumption during critical usage periods.”

 

TSAugust

January 10, 2010


Threat to America’s Security

Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS) will harm America.

There has been an effort in Washington to insert LCFS in the Senate’s cap & trade legislation.

LCFS have been established in California as an attempt to lower the amount of carbon contained in any source of oil, which would reduce CO2 emissions from gasoline.

What LCFS would really do is prevent the United States from importing oil from Canada where Canadian oil is derived from Tar Sands.

The U.S. imports 2.5 million barrels per day of oil from Canada. If LCFS is established it would require the U.S. to forego this oil and instead require the U.S. to import more oil from Saudi Arabia and other less secure areas of the world.

LCFS would threaten America’s security by denying the U.S. a source of poil from a country that is friendly toward the U.S.

Canada in fear of LCFS is turning to China for the sale of its oil.

The U.S. will, in effect, help China with its sourcing of oil while leaving the U.S. more vulnerable.

TSAugust

January, 3 2010


EV Push

There is a huge effort underway to promote EV’s. EV’s are all electric vehicles that run on batteries where the vehicle will have a range of 80 to 100 miles before the battery charge is depleted and the vehicle stops.

The push is on to spend billions of dollars on charging stations. These chargers are not ordinary 120 volt charging stations, such as the outlet found in a homeowners garage, but fast chargers that take only minutes to recharge a battery.

These Level III stations are very expensive. There is no known business model that will allow entrepreneurs or governments to charge enough for recharging batteries to recover their investment. The entire effort will have to be paid for by taxpayers.

There is no need for Level III charging.

The Plug-in electric vehicle that retains a gasoline engine on board the vehicle can go 40 miles using the battery and then shift to gasoline mode to continue driving when the battery is depleted.

There is no fear of running out of power, so long as there is a gasoline station nearby.

This effort by environmentalists is terribly misplaced, because people won’t distinguish between EV’s and PHEV’s and the entire concept of electrification of the transportation system will be given a black eye at a moment in time critical to its development.

TSAugust

December 26, 2009


Electricity Shortage by 2050

Cap & trade legislation will result in a 24% shortfall in electricity by 2050 which, on a per capita basis is nearly twice as great.

This analysis was sent to every member of Congress as a memorandum. It was printed in letter format, front and back, on poster stock so that it could be displayed on bulletin boards and easily filed for quick reference.

The memorandum was prepared by Donn Dears, an energy expert and retired GE Company executive.

Key factors demonstrated in the memorandum are:

  • A 1% growth rate in demand until 2030, as forecast by the EIA

  • An increase in the population of the United States of nearly 1 % annually though 2050

  • A 30% loss in capacity of existing coal fired power plants due to retrofitting for carbon capture

  • The inability of wind and other alternatives to generate enough electricity to meet demand

TSAugust

December 13, 2009

 

Note:

Single copies of the memorandum are available for individuals.

Send a request for a single copy to ddears@tsaugust.org. Include the return USPS mail address in the request.

Please recognize that there is a limited supply of these memoranda and that the total cost to the author is nearly $2 to mail single copies to individuals.


Tax deductable contributions can be made to TSAugust.

Checks should be made out to TSAugust.

They should be mailed to:

 TSAugust

1856 Old Reston Avenue, Suite 205
Reston, VA 20190

Note: Contributions are not accepted from corporations. TSAugust relies on individual contributions, and contributions of any size are gratefully received.


Climate Scientists Cooked the Books

If the CEO of a major corporation was found to have emailed his associates to manipulate data, hide data and refuse Freedom of Information Requests (FOI) he would be called before Congress and summarily dismissed by his board of directors.

Congress and the public would demand an investigation by an independent auditor, and not accept an internal review by the corporation.

This is essentially the situation involving the director of the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (CRU). A hacker obtained hundreds of emails from CRU that shows these types of actions: manipulating data, hiding data and refusing FROI requests.

Now the UN is saying they will investigate. But this situation demands an independent audit; otherwise everyone will know the internal investigation was a cover-up.

While many in the media have accepted at face value the information provided by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which based much of its report on CRU data that is now suspect, another group of scientists have produced a report “Climate Change Reconsidered: The 2009 Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC),” that rebuts, item by item, the IPCC report. The entire contents of Climate Change Reconsidered are available online at www.nipccreport.org  .

Here is information on some of the key players in Climate Gate. (Extracted from a December 4, 2009 article by Times Examiner Columnist, Barbara Hollingsworth.)

Geoff Jenkins, chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s first scientific group and self-described “frontman explaining climate change.” Jenkins admitted in 1996 to a “cunning plan” to feed fake temperature information to Nick Nuttall, head of media for the United Nations Environment program. At the time, Jenkins predicted temperatures in London would hit 113 degrees Fahrenheit and the Thames River would rise three feet even though 1996 was, in fact, cooler than 1995. 

Phil Jones, director of the CRU, controlled two key databases that are the primary sources underlying claims by the United Nations and others of a global scientific “consensus” that catastrophic consequences will result from man-made global warming unless trillions of dollars are spent now to prevent it.

Jones e-mailed instructions to colleagues to “hide the decline” in temperatures and to pressure editors of academic journals to blackball the work of “climate skeptics.”
After claiming that the original climate data had been destroyed in the 1980s, Jones was caught urging his CRU colleagues to “delete as appropriate” data requested under Britain’s freedom of information laws

James Hansen, head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, whose records were also cited as evidence, second only to the CRU data, of incontrovertible man-made global warming. McIntyre also caught Hansen engaging in the same sort of statistical manipulation in which past temperatures were lowered and recent ones “adjusted” to convey the false impression that the nonexistent warming trend was accelerating. After trying to block McIntyre’s IP address, NASA was forced to back down from its claim that 1998 was the hottest year in U.S. history.

TSAugust

December 5, 2009


IPCC Head Works for China

The UN's IPCC's Chairman Pachauri is now an advisor to the Chinese government.

As head of the IPCC, he has been leading the UN’s effort to get a new treaty, i.e., Kyoto II, established in Copenhagen this December.

Where do his allegiances lie?

Certainly not to the United States if he is working for the Chinese government.

He has said, “China and India should ‘shame’ developed economies into ‘wealth transfer’”.

What he wants is for the United States to transfer U.S. citizens’ tax dollars to India and China.

This is a blatant effort to work against the interests of the United States while also heading the IPCC.

It’s akin to the President of the United States accepting a job offer from China. Might not that be considered a conflict of interest?

Why doesn’t the government of the United States demand Pachauri’s resignation as head of the UN’s IPCC?

Certainly, this demonstrates that the IPCC is a political rather than a scientific body.

TSAugust

November 29, 2009

 

 
Is Solar Power a Failure?

In 1978, the Wall Street Journal carried this headline: “Solar Power Seen Meeting 20 percent of Needs by 2000; Carter May Seek Outlay Boost.”

In November 2006, the Wall Street Journal said “Renewable fuels may provide 25% of U.S. energy by 2025.”

Billions of dollars have been poured into the solar industry with little effect after 30 years.

Today, solar accounts for less than 1% of America’s electricity.

Solar was invented in 1839 by French physicist Alexandre Edmond Becquerel. After 170 years of scientific exploration and development, solar remains the most costly source of electricity. In Germany the cost of PV solar is estimated at 59 cents per kWh while some in the U.S. estimate it at between 14 to 28 cents per kWh.

PV solar is the most expensive form of solar generated electricity, but concentrating solar is also far more expensive than electricity generated from coal, nuclear, wind, hydro, or geothermal.

This is not surprising because PV solar has a capacity factor of only 16%. This compares with 22% for concentrating solar, 30% for wind and 92% for nuclear.

Germany’s experience with solar has been very negative while the U.S. experience has been mediocre, at best.

 

Sources: Speech by Congressman Tom McClitock October 22, 2009

Book, The Solar Fraud, by Hayden.

 

TSAugust

November 22, 2009


Germany’s Renewable Experience

The real cost and the absolute failure of Germany’s renewable energy policy has been demonstrated in a report by the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), an independent German economic policy think tank founded in 1926.

The German law passed in 2000 requires utilities to accept delivery of power from independent producers until 2020 at costs that far exceed the utilities’ cost of generating electricity.

Utilities must pay 59 cents per kWh for solar generated electricity and up to three times the cost of conventionally generated electricity for electricity from wind power.

With these high feed in tariffs solar only produced 0.6% of Germany’s electricity in 2008 and wind only produced 6.3%.

The combined cost of these subsidies between 2000 and 2010 is estimated to be $101.3 billion.

Subsidization costs for PV solar are equivalent to $240,000 per employee for estimated solar jobs. The report states that “whatever jobs are created from these subsidies would vanish as soon as the subsidies are discontinued.”

The report concludes, “government policy has failed to harness the market incentives needed to ensure a viable and cost-effective introduction of renewable energies into Germany’s energy portfolio. To the contrary, Germany’s principal mechanism of supporting renewable technologies through feed-in tariffs imposes high costs without any of the alleged positive impacts on emissions reductions, employment, energy security, or technological innovation.”

The full report is available in English from the RWI web site.

TSAugust

November 8, and 15, 2009


CO2 Emissions from Coal

Coal fired electricity produces 50% of America’s electricity and 82% of the CO2 emissions that come from generating electricity.

Eliminating the use of coal without a viable substitute for coal or a means for capturing and sequestering CO2, will deprive America of the electricity it needs to run its factories and light its homes.

Successfully capturing CO2 from coal fired power plants has yet to be proven on a large scale. If it ever works on a large scale it will require building one new power plant for every three that are retrofitted with carbon capture equipment.

The reason it will be necessary to build a new power plant for every three plants retrofitted with carbon capture equipment is that the carbon capture equipment consumes electricity and energy produced by the power plant. This parasitic load reduces by 30 to 40% the amount of electricity the plant can send to the grid.

Since coal provides 50% of America’s electricity it will be necessary to build enough new generating capacity to equal17% of our current production of electricity. This would equate to around 88 additional new nuclear power plants or another 175,000 wind turbines rated 1.5 MW.

The United States is in the process of obtaining licenses for around 20 new nuclear plants, which is far short of the 88 needed for the sole purpose of supplying the electricity lost from carbon capture. The United States, on average between 2007 through 2009, built around 3,900 new wind turbines each year, far short of the 175,000 needed to replace the electricity lost from carbon capture.

Clearly, carbon capture is not a viable alternative for eliminating CO2 from coal fired power plants.

TSAugust

November 1, 2009


CO2 Litigation

Litigation of CO2 could seriously damage the United States as well as the world economy.

This became apparent at the UN Bangkok meeting this month.

Litigation could follow three tracks.

  • The first will be litigation in the United States against corporations and institutions that emit CO2.

  • The second will also be in the United States, but it will be against government regulations, either those imposed by the EPA or those enacted by Congress.

  • The third will be foreign organizations, and possibly countries, suing the United States (and other developed countries) for damages they have supposedly caused by emitting CO2 into the atmosphere. The U.S. will be sued to pay reparations to developing countries in Asia, Africa and Central and South America.

Litigation against corporations is already proceeding in The United States. The suit by Connecticut v. American Electric Power has received the most media attention.

The insurance company Swiss Re has compared climate change litigation to asbestos claim suits that were initially dismissed but eventually won huge financial settlements in court.

The EPA has issued an endangerment finding and has said it will impose mandates on emitters of CO2 in 2010. Organizations have already indicated they will sue to strike down the endangerment finding and the proposed mandates.

At the UNFCCC October meeting in Bangkok, representatives from developing countries were pointing the finger at the United States and other developed countries.

Antonio Oposa, a Philippine lawyer, said “it was ‘only a matter of time’ until properly constituted international tribunals began hearing class actions seeking reparation from ‘over-consuming countries’ for damage caused by climate change in developing nations.

Recent history has shown that organizations pursue legal remedies when they don’t get what they want.

The threat of legal action is already causing corporations to think twice about making sound economic investments. The situation could become far worse over the next decade. It could affect job growth and America’s standard of living.

 

Source of quotation: CCNET, The Irish Times October 8, 2009

 

TSAugust

October 25, 2009


CO2 Revisited

There are several good reasons to say that CO2 emissions are not the cause of global warming.

An excellent video by a respected weatherman is well worth watching. (There is an advertisement preceding the video that we could not bypass.)

Click on this link for the video by Weatherman Joe Bastardi.

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=37129475001

In addition to the facts presented by Bastardi, here are some additional facts.

Empirical Evidence Suggests Cyclical Climate History, not Induced by CO2.

  1. Temperatures in 1100 AD higher than today

  • Grapes grew in Scotland

  • Greenland Settled

  1. Little Ice Age 1500 – 1800

  • Ice skating on canals in Holland

  • Christmas fairs held on frozen Thames in London

  • George Washington crossing ice clogged Delaware River

  1. World’s Temperatures Have been falling since 1999

  • While atmospheric CO2 continues to rise

Temp Chart

As Bastardi said, the global warming finger print over the equator is missing. Satellite temperature readings show no increase in temperature where there should be according to the IPCC computer models.

TSAugust

October 18, 2009

 


CO2 Based Energy Policy

Will the United States be the leading world economy in 2050? Or will the U.S. sink into the second tier behind China, India, Brazil and possibly Russia?

America’s future will depend on its energy policy.

If the U.S. continues to base its energy policy on the threat of CO2 induced Global Warming, it will almost assuredly become a second rate economic power.

The Waxman – Markey cap & trade bill and the more recent Senate version will result in less energy, fewer jobs and hardships for Americans.

Cap & trade achieves one thing, it cuts the use of energy.

Worse it cuts the use of viable energy sources when there are no proven substitutes.

Extreme environmentalists tout wind, solar, cellulosic ethanol, algae, carbon capture and sequestration, etc. while members of Congress, who have little scientific or engineering training, slavishly follow their lead.

The brutal fact is that these so called alternatives cannot replace coal, natural gas or the use of gasoline.

  • The United States consumes about 8 million barrels of oil daily for gasoline. Biofuels, including cellulosic ethanol (that hasn’t yet been proven to work) plus algae (that is still experimental) can at the most replace about one third of the 8 million barrels of oil used daily.

  • Electric vehicles or PHEV’s can cut CO2 emissions by only 18%, rather than the 83% required by the various cap & trade bills. Cutting CO2 emissions from electric vehicles would require building enough nuclear power plants to replace coal. Without nuclear power, electric vehicle merely shift CO2 emissions from the vehicle to the power plants generating electricity.

  • Carbon capture is still very experimental and will unlikely ever be able to capture all the CO2 from all the coal fired power plants. If carbon capture ever becomes workable, it will require building one new power plant for every three plants that are retrofitted with carbon capture.

  • Sequestration has worked on a small scale at a few locations, but there is no proof it will work on the massive scale that is required. Europe is finding that people oppose sequestration out of fear that it could leak out of the ground and threaten their communities.

  • Nuclear, that can replace coal, is opposed by powerful environmental organizations such as the Union of Concerned Scientists, the Rocky Mountain Institute with Amory Lovins, the Natural Resource Defense Council and Greenpeace. The U. S will be lucky if 20 new nuclear plants are built before 2050.

  • Wind is unreliable and cannot replace coal. The same is true for solar except in the southwest, where it might be useful.

Many environmental organizations say the U.S. must use less energy, not more. Conservation cannot cut emissions by the 83% required by cap & trade legislation.

Improving efficiency and productivity is good for America, but with cap & trade the goal is to cut the use of energy.

TSAugust

October 10, 2009


Indecipherable Language

Waxman-Markey HR 2454 was written in such haste by inexperienced staff members that many sections are incomprehensible. As written, HR 2454 will result in litigation for years to come. The threat of litigation will retard economic development.

An example is Section 610 (a) (13) (B) iii concerning whether electric generation equipment can be installed on an existing dam.

The relevant text reads:

“the hydroelectric project installed on the dam is operated so that the water surface elevation at any given location and time that would have occurred in the absence of the hydroelectric project is maintained, …”

A strict reading of this sentence would say that electricity could never be produced at such an installation. When water flow increases, such as when it rains, water levels will rise – but if the hydro generators are operated the water levels can’t rise as much as they otherwise would. Even if the difference can’t be measured, which is possible on a large river, the theoretical result is obvious … water levels would have risen by some additional fraction of an inch if the generators hadn’t been run.

This is the type of situation that keeps lawyers employed.

It would be clearer to say that water levels would never go below a minimum level, measured from a fixed reference point; perhaps from the top of the dam.

In the same section there is language concerning fuel cells. The text reads:

“greater efficiency with which the fuel cell transforms fuel into electricity as compared with sources of electricity delivered through the grid, …”

The sources of electricity delivered through the grid could be hydro, nuclear, coal, wind or a combination of multiple sources. How will it be possible to establish whether the fuel cell is more efficient than electricity available from the grid?

Will the assumption be that electricity from the grid is from a mix of sources even though the mix varies between regions and over time?

Or if the intent is to compare how efficiently fuel cells transform fuels compared with a single source such as wind or hydro, fuel cells might never be approved.

Who knows?

Here are two badly drafted sentences from a single section of HR 2454. How many more are there in a bill that is 1428 pages long, drafted in haste by staff members who do not have the necessary background to know what they are doing?

TSAugust

October 4, 2009


Smoot Hawley déjà vu

Smoot Hawley is credited with having worsened, if not caused, the great depression.

Now Waxman-Markey HR2454 is bent on repeating this colossal error.

It does it in an underhanded way by requiring importers to have international reserve allowances. The imports of certain countries are excluded, but these are small undeveloped countries that play a very small role in international trade.

China, India, Brazil and other major exporters will have to have these reserve allowances.

This approach is being used to circumvent the requirements of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The WTO’s policies and agreements, to which the U.S. subscribes, are intended to promote free trade and eliminate the type of beggar thy neighbor policies that worsened the great depression.

Sub Part 2, Sections 766 and 767 describe this program. In it the President is required to report to Congress on the effectiveness of “mitigating carbon leakage in industrial sectors.”

“Carbon leakage” is the euphemism for industries moving offshore as the result of cap & trade regulations.

HR2454 threatens China and India by requiring the Administrator to report to Congress if these countries have not enacted targets as strong as those contained in HR2454. Here is the exact language:

“The Administrator, in consultation with the Department of State and the United States Trade Representative, shall annually prepare and certify a report to the Congress regarding whether China and India have adopted greenhouse gas emissions standards at least as strict as those standards required under this Act. If the Administrator determines that China and India have not adopted greenhouse gas emissions standards at least as stringent as those set forth in this Act, the Administrator shall notify each Member of Congress of his determination, and shall release his determination to the media.”

TSAugust

September 20, 2009


Waxman-Markey Dictates Codes

It has long been the practice in the United States to allow local and state governments to establish building codes that best suit the needs of their local communities.

Waxman-Markey will take this prerogative away from local and state governments and place control in the hands of the federal bureaucracy.

This is another example of how Waxman-Markey is grabbing control from local and state governments.

The Waxman-Markey bill, HR 2454, requires that new and substantially renovated commercial and residential buildings achieve a total reduction in energy use of 70% by 2030. (Substantially renovated can mean anything the federal government dictates.)

  • It accomplishes this by requiring states to adopt a national standard building code.

  • It requires that the federal government establish ways in which to measure whether the required reductions are achieved.

  • It establishes that inspectors will tell local building contractors and architects how they should change their designs so as to meet the national energy use reduction target.

State governments must certify to the federal government that at least 80% of its urban population is covered by the national code. If states do not so certify, Waxman-Markey gives the federal government the right to impose the national standards without local agreement.

  • State compliance plans must include the hiring of “enforcement staff.”

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has already developed a methodology for measuring energy use reductions, incorporating regional climate and other factors. PNNL has developed separate computer models for commercial buildings, schools, hospitals and residential buildings so that the Department of Energy can determine whether the nation is meeting the reductions mandated by Waxman-Markey.

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has developed a building energy optimization tool called BEopt. This tool is designed to focus on “zero net energy” use. Zero net energy use is another major target of the Waxman-Markey bill.

Zero net energy use envisions that local buildings will generate their own power etc. using net metering and conservation to achieve zero net energy use.

This will strong arm building owners and developers to add such items as renewable energy (i.e., primarily PV Solar) and combined heat and power. This imposes high cost inefficiencies on building owners and users, costs that will have to be borne by the public in the form of higher prices.

One example of the BEopt model shows a $65 thousand investment in PV solar out of $76 thousand spent to achieve zero net energy use. PV solar is two to three times as expensive as electricity bought from the grid.

High cost inefficient energy systems may save energy used by a centralized power plant, but increases costs for the overall economy. For example doctors who lease space using high cost energy systems will have to charge more for their services or further reduce their ability to provide services to everyone. Retail stores that have to use inefficient systems will have to charge higher prices. Everyone is affected negatively by the national code being imposed by Waxman-Markey.

TSAugust

September 13, 2009


Net Metering

Net metering requires an electric utility to pay twice as much, or more, for electricity than if it generated the electricity at its power plant.

When only a very small number of customers take advantage of net metering the extra cost to the utility is extremely small and the effect on other customers is negligible.

If a large number of customers used net metering, the extra cost to the utility would have to be covered by other customers. In other words, people are subsidizing their neighbors cost of electricity when the neighbor uses net metering.

The purported purpose of net metering is to encourage people to install distributed generation capabilities, primarily PV solar. The cost of a PV solar rooftop installation is extremely high, especially when measured by cost per kWh. The cost per kWh of electricity from a central natural gas, coal or nuclear power station is much lower.

Net metering works by allowing the electric meter installed on a home to run backwards. When the home owner uses electricity from the grid, the meter advances and registers a sale for the utility.

When the home owner generates more electricity than he can use, the meter runs backwards as the electricity flows to the grid. The meter deducts the amount of electricity flowing to the grid thereby reducing the home owner’s bill. The homeowner is, in effect, selling electricity to the utility at the same price he would pay the utility when buying electricity from the utility.

Advocates of net metering claim that net metering encourages the use of renewables and reduces capital expenditures by the utility.

Net metering, however, is different from conservation because it requires a large capital investment by the home owner. The homeowner’s investment is less efficient, as shown above, than an investment made by the utility.

In effect, inefficient use of capital is being encouraged by net metering.

Section 152 of the Waxman-Markey bill specifically requires federal buildings to use net metering.

This will reduce the cost of electricity to the government, but will increase the utility’s costs that will eventually have to be borne by the ordinary rate payer. Net metering by the federal government becomes a hidden tax on consumers.

TSAugust

September 6, 2009


Climate Change, Urinals & Deficit Spending

The link between climate change and toilets can be found in the Waxman-Markey cap & trade bill, HR 2454.

This bill establishes rules for a plethora of products including light bulbs, search lights, light fixtures, water dispensers, portable electric spas, warm air furnaces, faucets, toilets, clothes washers, shower heads and urinals, among others.

It also goes into great detail as to how these items are to be tested.

It then establishes how the government is to pay dealers and manufacturers for selling best-in-class products and for retiring old products.

Not satisfied with establishing Best-in-Class products, the bill establishes Superefficient-Best-in-Class products.

Perhaps the next step will be to establish SuperDuper-Superefficient-Best in Class products.

Here is the language for payments to manufacturers for the years indicated.

“For years 2011 through 2013, the Secretary shall make bonus payments to manufacturers of the products designated in paragraph (4)(A) for each product produced in the following amounts:

(i) $75 for each dishwasher.

(ii) $250 for each clothes washer.

(iii) $200 for each refrigerator or refrigerator-freezer

(vi) $300 for each water heater”

This will result in huge payments to manufacturers, in the order of billions of dollars, when the government is already broke.

(This is in addition to the $300 million stimulus rebate program.)

The bill States:

“There are authorized to be appropriated $600,000,000 for each of the fiscal years 2011 through 2013 to the Secretary of Energy for purposes of this section, and such sums as may be necessary for subsequent fiscal years.”

It goes on to provide for payment of bounties:

“(2) BOUNTIES.—Bounties shall be payable—

(A) to a retailer upon documentation that the sale of a Best-in-Class Product was accompanied by the replacement, retirement, and recycling of—“

HR 2454 is over 1500 pages long, so the subject addressed here is only a small snippet of what is contained in the bill.

TSAugust

August 30, 2009

 


Waxman Markey snippet

Here is a tiny snippet from the 1428 page HR2454.

‘(4) CUSTOMER FACILITY SAVINGS.—

The term ‘customer facility savings’ means a reduction in end use electricity consumption (including recycled energy savings) at a facility of an end-use consumer of electricity served by a retail electric supplier, as compared to—

‘‘(A) in the case of a new facility, consumption at a reference facility of average efficiency;

‘‘(B) in the case of an existing facility, consumption at such facility during a base period, except as provided in subparagraphs (C) and (D);

‘‘(C) in the case of new equipment that replaces existing equipment with remaining useful life, the projected consumption of the existing equipment for the remaining useful life of such equipment, and thereafter, consumption of new equipment of average efficiency of the same equipment type; and

‘‘(D) in the case of new equipment that replaces existing equipment at the end of the useful life of the existing equipment, consumption by new equipment of average efficiency of the same equipment type.”

 

Few staffers and even fewer Congressmen or women could possibly know what this means.

Imagine how many bureaucrats and customer reports will be required to interpret and administer this lonely paragraph.

Then think about how many bureaucrats it will take to administer and interpret the remaining 1428 pages of HR2454

 

TSAugust

August 23, 2009


 
 

 

 

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