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Earlier Articles |
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UN Taxes
China’s Temperatures
The Fourth
Cost of Electricity
Electricity Shortage
by 2050
Is Nuclear Dead in U.S.?,
Electrical Efficiency Issue
Conservation Using R.O.I
Cost of Electricity with IGCC
Denmark’s Folly
Challenges to EPA Endangerment Finding
Natural Gas Bonanza
Smart Meters
Bogus CHP Efficiencies
ICE
Transmission Line Losses
Capacity Factor
Demand Response
Threat to America’s Security,
Electricity Shortage by 2050 Climate Scientists Cooked the Books, December 5, 2009 IPCC Head Works for China Is Solar Power a Failure? Germany’s Renewable Experience CO2 Emissions from Coal CO2 Litigation CO2 Revisited WAXMAN MARKEY ARTICLES BETWEEN BARS CO2 Based Energy Policy
Indecipherable Language
Smoot Hawley déjà
vu Waxman-Markey Dictates Codes Net Metering Climate Change, Urinals & Deficit Spending Waxman Markey snippet, August 23, 2009 |
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Sea Level Rise
Geophysical Research, Volume 115, established that
there would be minimal sea rise over the next century.
The abstract said, “The 20th century
regional and global sea level variations are estimated based on
long-term tide gauge records. … The global mean sea level for the period
January 1900 to December 2006 is estimated to rise at a rate of 1.56 ±
0.25 mm/yr which is reasonably consistent with earlier estimates, but we
do not find significant acceleration. ... “ With little or no acceleration, which is contrary to
what the IPCC has said, there will be only a small rise in the sea
levels during this century. The 1.56 mm/yr non-accelerating rate of sea level
rise results in a rise of 6 inches over the next 100 years. Residents of Florida and other coastal areas can
rest easy and not be afraid that they will be flooded by a 23 foot rise
in sea levels. TSAugust
August 22, 2010 |
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Tax Credits
The government provides tax credits for a variety of
reasons. Some include:
Naturally everyone receiving a tax credit is
pleased. But are tax credits good? This is a question we should all be asking. First, a tax credit paid to one person comes out of
the pockets of others. It redistributes the wealth. Second, if there are insufficient tax revenues to
cover the tax credits the money must be borrowed from someone, probably
a foreign country In other words, tax credits increase the national
debt. Supposedly tax credits are used to promote a common
good. Ethanol and electric vehicles are supposed to reduce
foreign oil imports and cut CO2 emissions. Actually, all tax credits are a political payoff to
some particular group. Ethanol tax credits are a political payoff to
farmers. Tax credits for electric vehicles are a payoff to
environmental groups and automobile companies. There is no way that
electric vehicles can substantially reduce oil imports for at least
three decades – and should we really be concerned about CO2 emissions? If we are taking money from one citizen and giving
it to another – or if we borrow money and increase the national debt,
can we really believe that tax credits are good? TSAugust August 15, 2010 |
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UN Taxes
At the ongoing climate conference in Bonn, Germany,
the UN is proposing to tax air fares and cross border money transaction,
among various methods for raising money. These funds would be used by
the UN to pay developing countries so they can implement actions to
adapt to climate change. The UN meeting in Copenhagen last December agreed
that $100 billion would be paid to developing countries every year by
2020. No matter how the UN structures the taxes, U.S.
citizens will end up paying a sizeable portion of them. U.S. citizens will pay some of these taxes even if
Congress never ratifies a climate treaty or cap and trade legislation. For example, the tax on
international air fares would probably be collected by the air carriers.
Foreign airlines would be compelled to collect the tax by their
governments who subscribe to the global warming hypothesis. U.S.
airlines might be compelled to collect the tax from U.S. passengers in
order to have landing rights at foreign airports.
Banks would have to pay the tax on money transfers
to foreign countries and then turn around and increase fees on their
U.S. customers. The current
administration supports these types of activities and will use whatever
means are at their disposal to have the U.S. involved.
U.S.
negotiator at the Bonn conference,
Jonathan Pershing
said, “We have multiple tools at our
disposal. We will use all of those tools," when asked about the U.S.
cutting CO2 emissions. TSAugust August 8, 2010 |
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IGCC
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) power
plants turn coal into gasses, primarily CO2 and hydrogen, and then separate
and capture the CO2 while burning the hydrogen in a gas turbine. The exhaust from the gas turbine heats the water in
a boiler to create steam which then drives a steam turbine. The
combination of a gas turbine and steam turbine is why it is called a
combined cycle power plant. The gas and steam turbines drive electric generators
to produce electricity. Some people look upon IGCC as a way to capture CO2
while still using coal to generate electricity. There are two problems with IGCC units. The first is that no one knows whether it will be
possible to sequester all the captured CO2 underground in geologic
formations. The second is its very high cost. The most up to date technologically advanced
supercritical and ultra-supercritical coal fired power plants cost
around $2,500 per KW to build. IGCC power plants cost twice as much to build. The
Future Gen plant to be built in southern Illinois is expected to cost
$5,500 per KW. Proponents of IGCC power plants say the cost of
electricity won’t rise by very much. If IGCC plants cost twice as much to build, use the
same resource, i.e., coal, have a more complicated system for extracting
hydrogen and CO2, it could lead people to think electricity might also
cost twice as much. TSAugust August 1, 2010 |
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China’s Temperatures Temperature data from China would seem to confirm
that the high temperatures recorded in Europe around 1100 AD were
worldwide. These temperature records from China go back 2,000
years and support the hypothesis that changes in temperature are normal
and have nothing to do with CO2 emissions. The temperature records also confirm that the little
ice age was a worldwide event, and not some local aberration in Europe
and North America. The records further discredit the Mann Hockey Stick.
This chart showing a
plot of the temperature reconstructions has the cold periods, shaded in
grey with rising temperatures after the cold period in 1800. The chart
also shows periods of warming dating back nearly 2,000 years which also
suggests that temperature changes are perfectly normal and have nothing
to do with CO2 emissions. TSAugust July 18, 2010 |
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Milk Pollution The EPA has established that milk is a pollutant. Yes, the EPA classifies milk as oil because it
contains a percentage of animal fat. Milk is a threat to America’s waterways, according
to the Sierra Club. According to the Sierra Club, it doesn’t make any
difference that milk is bio-degradable. Poor Daisy and Elmer have now been caught-up in the
EPA’s ever widening web. If the rule goes into effect, dairy farmers will
have to establish catch basins and drains and then dispose of the spilt
milk in a manner that doesn’t allow it to get into the ground. They will need to spend money for an inspector to
certify their milk is safe. I can see it now. A milk truck crashes on the highway and milk is
spilled over the roadway and into the field alongside the road. Hazmat teams dressed in moon suits are dispatched to
the scene to clean up the spill of hazardous milk. Traffic is stopped
for hours so as not to become contaminated with spilt milk. The dairy that owned the milk truck is fined for
violating the clean water act. Whoever said, “don’t cry over spilt milk”? Thanks to the EPA we must now cry over spilt milk. TSAugust July 11, 2010 |
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The Fourth As the Declaration was
about to be signed, John Adams wrote his wife Abigail, [“the day] ought
to be solemnized with pomp and parade, with shows, games, sports, guns,
bells, bonfires, and illuminations, from one end of this continent to
the other, from this time forward forever more.” Today, as John Adams
wished, we celebrate the fourth of July with illuminations, pomp and
parades from one end of the continent to the other. Eleven years later, the fragile thirteen states drew up a Constitution. When asked, as he left
the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia, “what kind of government
have you given us?” Ben Franklin said, “A Republic if you can keep it.” That statement is as
important today as it was in 1787. The United States is a
Republic. Not a Democracy. Not a
Democratic Republic.
Just
a Republic. This is worth
remembering because we can lose our Republic where the constitution is
the law of the land. The Constitution can
be changed by amending it as times and conditions change. Article V establishes
how to amend the Constitution. This is at the heart
of the current debate about a living constitution. There is a belief
that the Constitution should be amended through legal interpretation by
Judges, even though the Constitution established the means for making
amendments. This indicates that
some people have given up on the Constitution, because they aren’t
willing to follow its dictates. If they have given up on the
Constitution, does it mean they have also given up on the Republic? And
if so, what form of government are they proposing? TSAugust July 4, 2010 |
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Carbon Trap
Senators in favor of cap and trade, or whatever is
the currently favored name, consistently try to minimize how bad their
legislation is by hiding the true cost of carbon credits. A case in point is the “Cap and Dividend” bill
introduced by Senators Cantwell (D) and Collins (r ). The bill establishes a minimum price for carbon of
$7.00, which sounds reasonable to the casual reader. However, the bill then establishes a formula for how
the minimum price will increase annually. The formula is 6% capital cost
plus inflation plus a 0.5% kicker. Inflation, conservatively, will be 3%
annually. Using information from the bill, the formula is $7
times (6% + 3% + 0.5%) compounded over the next 38 years, beginning in
2013, until the year 2050 when CO2 emissions are to be cut 83% from 2005
levels. The minimum price for carbon increases from a benign
$7 to $220 in 2050. This bill also establishes a slush fund equaling 25%
of the money received from auctioning carbon credits. Purportedly, this is to be used to pay for
developing so-called clean energy, but it will be discretionary for the
administration and Congress to define who and what gets the money. The balance of the money collected from the sale of
carbon credits is to be returned to qualified individuals. Qualified
individuals are any person living in the United States lawfully. Qualified individuals would therefore include
foreigners living in the United States who are students, workers,
diplomats, and members of the United Nations. Corporations buying the carbon credits will increase
their prices to cover the cost of the carbon credits. High income
families who use more electricity and gasoline will pay more due to
these higher prices, but will receive the same rebate from the
government as will low income families. The bill becomes another method
for redistributing wealth. This and all the other cap and trade bills ignore
the fact that it’s not possible to cut CO2 emissions without causing a
shortage of electricity
(See Memo) and economic hardship due to a loss of jobs. TSAugust June 27, 2010
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Cost of Electricity
Understanding the cost of generating electricity can help people
objectively evaluate various options.
Individuals and media outlets frequently use a wide array of
inconsistent costs when comparing different methods of generating
electricity. Some people deliberately sow confusion in support of their
political preferences.
Here are some facts that will help clarify costs.
Three costs should be evaluated.
Each provides a slightly different understanding about a specific method
of generating electricity. Comparing these costs may also provide an
insight into the future cost of generating electricity. Two additional factors need to be clarified in any discussion of costs. These are important because not all methods of generating electricity are equal.
Capacity factor is a measure of how much electricity a particular
installation can deliver during a year. A 1 MW unit with a capacity
factor of 30% delivers one third the electricity of a 1 MW unit with a
capacity factor of 90%.
A base load unit can be relied on to deliver electricity at virtually
any time: The electricity it generates is dispatchable to the grid. A
generation method that cannot be relied on for a steady flow of
electricity has less value.
Table I shows various approximate costs for different methods of
generating electricity. These costs are being refined so that better
estimates will be available over time. The costs shown in Table I are
sufficiently accurate to allow making comparisons.
Fuel and operating costs are approximate. Reliable data is currently not
available for NGCC units due to the recent increase in the supply of
natural gas and the resulting reduction in price.
Reliable data is also not available for IGCC plants with only two IGCC
plants having been built in the United States. Neither of these plants
were built to allow the capture of CO2. A third IGCC power plant is
under construction in Ohio where CO2 is to be captured and sequestered.
Table II ranks the methods for generating electricity in terms of the
pollutants they emit, such as NOx, SOx, and Hg. (Scientifically, CO2 is
not a pollutant.) Table II, ranked from lowest to highest emissions.
Conclusions
Nuclear has the lowest emissions of pollutants and also doesn’t emit
CO2. Nuclear is the most expensive in terms of construction costs, but
is very competitive in terms of fuel and operating costs. Its costs for
generating electricity are higher than the costs for natural gas and
ultra-supercritical coal.
Natural gas combined cycle has low emissions and produces electricity at
low cost.
Ultra-supercritical and supercritical coal have low emissions and
produce electricity at low cost. They have vastly better thermal
efficiencies than traditional coal.
Integrated gasification combined cycle has construction costs twice as
great as ultra-supercritical coal and will probably produce electricity
at a very high cost, perhaps two to three times higher than
ultra-supercritical coal.
TSAugust
May 30,
June 6 and June 13, 2010
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Electricity Shortage
by 2050 The Kerry-Lieberman “American
Power Act” in the Senate, again raises the specter of cutting CO2
emissions 80% by 2050. It can be shown that there will be a shortage of
electricity in 2050 unless over 300 nuclear or 300 Integrated
Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) power plants are built by 2050. Nuclear power may be dying in
the United States (see May 16, article). IGCC plants rely on carbon
capture and sequestration which are still experimental. While the newest supercritical coal fired power
plants cost $2,000 per KW, IGCC plants cost over twice as much at $5,000
per KW, while nuclear power plants are expected to cost $4,000 per KW. The memorandum
Carbon Cap & Trade Would Cause
Energy Shortages and Rationing by 2050 establishes why there will be
shortages of electricity if there is cap & trade of any kind on carbon
or CO2. The full memorandum is available here, on
TSAugust.com. The new “American Power Act”
(APA) calls for cutting CO2 emissions 80% for capped sectors1
by 2050 and establishes a ceiling price for carbon that could reach
$400 by 2050.2 TSAugust May 23, 2010
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Is Nuclear
Dead in U.S.? It’s time to ask the question: Is the nuclear industry dead in the United States? A decade ago it was believed there would be a
nuclear renaissance. At that time, it was forecast that over twenty new
nuclear plants would be built by the mid 2020’s. A decade ago a new
nuclear power plant was estimated to cost around $2,000 per KW. Today, it’s estimated that a new nuclear power plant
will cost $4,000 per KW; and there is concern the cost will rise
further. Today,
there is talk of a “first wave” of seven new nuclear power plants,
instead of over twenty as originally envisioned: And, these “first”
seven face renewed opposition.
For
example, a Georgia,
Superior Court judge recently ruled that the state public service
commission acted illegally when it certified the two proposed Vogtle
reactors.
Until recently, it was assumed that all 104 existing nuclear reactors
would be relicensed for a second twenty years. Now, there is concern
that the Vermont, Yankee and New York, Indian Point reactors won’t be
relicensed. In addition, two California reactors may have to be shut
down because they will be prohibited from using ocean water for cooling.
Regardless of how many of the 104 are relicensed for another twenty
years of operation, they will all have to be relicensed again for an
additional twenty years beginning in 2030. By 2050, all
but two of the 104 plants will have to be shut down when their licenses
expire unless they receive the second license renewal. The clearest signal that nuclear is dead, is when
opponents of nuclear power begin to support loan guarantees for new
nuclear power plants. The administration supports $54 billion in loan
guarantees as will the new Kerry –Lieberman comprehensive climate change
bill. Both the administration and Senator Kerry have opposed nuclear in
the past, and they are fully aware of the problems being encountered by
nuclear power. If only a few new nuclear
reactors are built over the next three decades, and if existing nuclear
plants are not relicensed now and again by 2050, nuclear power (as we
know it today)1 will be dead in the United States.
TSAugust May 16, 2010 |
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Electrical Efficiency Issue
Can gains in efficiency offset the lost generating capacity caused by
cap & trade regulations that cut CO2 emissions 80%?
It has been estimated there will be a 24%
shortfall in generating capacity in 2050 with cap & trade legislation.1
Some people have claimed improvements in electrical efficiency can
offset any lost capacity caused by cap & trade legislation.
Efficiency can be improved by:
A simple example for improving efficiency in the home is to use compact
fluorescent lamps (CFL). The EIA estimated that replacing incandescent
bulbs that burn more than four hours per day with CFL’s would save 35%
of the electricity used for lighting. This amounts to less than 1% of
the electricity generated in 2009.
Refrigerators are the largest user of electricity
among household appliances. Replacing all refrigerators with energy star2
units would reduce total electricity usage by ½ of one percent (0.49%).
Similarly small savings are achieved by replacing home air conditioning
units with energy star units.
Improving efficiency on the grid can be accomplished by reducing
transmission losses.
The Department of Energy has set a goal for improving grid efficiency by
40 percent by 2030.
The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
estimates that achieving this goal would save 54 terawatt hours which
would be 1% of the electricity generated in 2030.3
EPRI’s efforts to improve grid efficiency are
interesting, but ephemeral. One experiment will replace existing wiring
on two transmission lines with new trapezoidal wire (See diagram). The
shape of the trapezoidal wires fills the voids created when round wire
is used.
This type of wiring would make economic
sense when building new transmission lines, but would be hard to justify
economically for replacing existing transmission lines unless the
increased carrying capacity would obviate the need for building a new
transmission line.
These examples illustrate that, without revolutionary breakthroughs, it
will not be possible to achieve sufficient improvements in electrical
efficiencies to offset the 24% loss in generating capacity resulting
from cap & trade legislation.
TSAugust
May 9, 2010
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Conservation Using R.O.I
Conservation is a way to reduce the use of energy.
Some consider conservation and efficiency as being synonymous, though
technically they may have slightly different meanings. Improving
efficiency is inherently good. But is conservation always good? A simple example is the compact fluorescent lamp
(CFL). A CFL for a standard lamp, not an overhead
spotlight, costs about $2 more than a 100 watt incandescent bulb. A CFL
uses 75% less electricity than a 100 watt incandescent bulb. When
electricity costs ten cents per kWh, the CFL can save $0.075 per kWh. It
would take 267 hours of continuous operation for a CFL to pay for the
extra $2 it costs compared with a 100 watt incandescent bulb. If used four hours per day it would take around 67
days, or a little over two months, for the CFL to pay for itself. Clearly, when used for 4 hours per day the CFL is a
good investment. But does that mean every incandescent bulb should be
replaced with a CFL? A bulb in a clothes closet may get used for only ten
minutes a day. In this instance it would take over four years for a CFL
to pay for itself. An incandescent bulb in a broom closet may get used
for less than five minutes a day. At five minutes per day it would take
a CFL over nine years to pay for its higher cost. Money isn’t free, so it’s important to prioritize
investments. Return on investment (ROI) is how businesses
prioritize their investment dollars. Clearly not every incandescent bulb should be
replaced with a CFL. An ROI of 20% would indicate that an investment
should pay for itself in five years. An ROI of 20% is very often the cut-off point used
by businesses, though some investments are required to have larger
ROI’s. For example, an investment in a new process that
will become quickly obsolete could be required to have an ROI of 30% or
more. The corollary for a home owner would be the
uncertainty of how soon the owner might move. A young family may move
every two or three years, in which case the family should require an ROI
of 30% or higher. Using ROI is a sound method for determining which
investments should be made for conserving energy. TSAugust May 2, 2010 |
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Cost of Electricity with IGCC
There is continuing pressure in Congress to
establish a cap & trade program for cutting CO2 emissions. With nearly 40% of CO2 emissions caused by the
generation of electricity, there has been a debate as to whether
controlling ()i.e., cutting) CO2 emission would result in higher rates
for electricity.
Integrated
Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) coal fired power plants are one way
in which CO2 emissions can be captured and then sequestered underground. Alternatives such as wind and solar are at least
twice as costly as electricity from traditional coal fired power plants.
Will IGCC electricity also result in consumers paying more for their
electricity? If it costs more to build a power plant it’s obvious
the price of electricity will be higher, assuming the cost of fuel
remains the same. The cost of building IGCC plants with carbon capture
will be around $5,000 per KW.* The cost of building a coal fired power plant is
around $2,000 per KW.** In both cases the cost of coal will be the same. It’s clear that with cap & trade legislation the
cost of electricity to consumers will be far higher than it is today. Notes: * The cost of constructing the FutureGen plant
in Illinois is estimated at $5,500 per KW.
The
cost of the Duke
Energy’s Edwardsport
IGCC
plant in Indiana is estimated to cost $4,500 per KW. ** The cost of building new supercritical or ultra
supercritical coal fired power plants with vastly lower emissions is
around $2,000 TSAugust April 28, 2010 |
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Denmark’s Folly
Proponents of distributed generation, wind energy
and the smart grid point to Denmark as the poster child for these
proposals. Unfortunately the postal child is one of waste and
unnecessary investment. Steve Pullins, a member of the smart grid team, made a presentation for the National Energy Technology Laboratory using a slide to highlight Denmark’s distributed generation system and smart grid. Unintentionally, the slide demonstrated the waste
inherent in Denmark’s grid.
Consumption has remained fairly constant since 1990,
but a huge amount of new generating capacity has been installed,
primarily wind and Combined Heat and Power. Referring to the slide, approximately 3,000 MW of
excess generating capacity was added by 2010. At a cost of $2,000 per
KW, the total amount of excess capacity cost $6 Billion. Denmark is a
small country with a population of 5.5 million people, so the waste per
person was over $1,000. For a country the size of the United States, the
waste would have been over $300 Billion. TSAugust April 18, 2010 |
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Ben Franklin
Ben Franklin had it right: A penny saved is a penny
earned. Another maxim in industry is: Follow the pennies and
the dollars will take care of themselves. Unfortunately, the current energy policy of the United States ignores these time proven truths. Current energy policy advocates using the most
expensive methods for generating electricity. Wind, PV solar,
concentrating solar, hydro kinetics and other alternative renewable
sources are anywhere from twice as expensive to four times as expensive
as the least costly methods; coal and natural gas. Renewable portfolio standards mandate that 20% or
more of electricity be produced using these inefficient methods. California, Colorado and other states are mandating
RPS greater than 20%. This results in 20% or more of the electricity
generated in the United States using inefficient methods that waste
money. Billions of dollars will be wasted by mandating RPS. These
billions could be used for improving productivity or allowing families
to invest in new homes or other goods, including energy saving
appliances. When money is wasted, the county suffers. TSAugust April 11, 2010 |
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Fracking (This article expands on an earlier article.) Four years ago, experts were saying the United
States had a shortage of natural gas. It was thought that liquid natural gas (LNG) would
have to be imported and that a dozen new LNG terminals would have to be
built. Today, due to a new technology called “fracking”,
the United States has a surfeit of natural gas: Fracking has released
natural gas that has been trapped in shale. America now has sufficient natural gas to last
for 100 years. Once again there is a threat that government
regulations will curtail the use of fracking and thrust America into an
unnecessary shortage of natural gas.
Fracturing, known as fracking, is accomplished by injecting fluids under
high pressure into shale to fracture the shale formation so that oil and
gas can flow to a well where it can be brought to the surface. Until the
advent of fracking, natural gas was too tightly locked in shale to be
extracted.
In 2004 the EPA issued a report indicating that fracking did not pose a
threat to the drinking water supply.
The report listed fluids and additives used in fracking,
and except for diesel oil, none represented a threat to humans in the
minute quantities left in the ground. The identity of nearly all fluids and
additives is well known and not a secret. The secret is in how these
fluids and additives are used.
The EPA study said: “None of the other constituents in Table 4-1 [except
those in diesel oil] appear on the Agency's draft Contaminant Candidate
List (CCL).”
Most of the liquids used in fracking (68 to 82%) are drawn out of the
ground before gas production begins. Only a small percentage remains in
the ground. In addition, the quantity of additives, other than sand,
mixed with the fluids is small; perhaps a few gallons per 1,000 gallons
of fluid. The sand or other granular substances are used to prop open
the fractures and not allow them to close when the pressurized fluid is
extracted. Sand is obviously a natural substance that will not
contaminate water supplies.
The three largest service companies agreed not to use diesel oil as a
fracking liquid, and these three companies performed 95% of fracking
done at the time of the study.
Extreme environmentalists are now trying to get the EPA to regulate
fracking. One approach they are promoting is to require that only
drinking water can be used for fluids in fracking. This will
automatically create a conflict between drilling companies and
communities over the use of water. This will be devastating in the West
where drinking water is in short supply.
The intent is obvious: Shut down fracking and deny the United States the
natural gas it needs.
Source: EPA
report, “Evaluation of Impacts to Underground Sources of Drinking Water
by Hydraulic Fracturing of Coal bed Methane Reservoirs.” June, 2004
TSAugust
April 4, 2010
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Challenges to EPA Endangerment Finding The EPA recently issued an endangerment finding claiming that CO2 emissions are a threat to the health of Americans. This finding will allow the EPA to regulate CO2 emissions, including those from power plants, and, at the other end of the spectrum, from lawnmowers. Many organizations are preparing challenges to the
EPA’s endangerment finding. The challenges will include questioning the
finding’s constitutionality, whether the EPA relied on flawed data, or
data not subject to rigorous scientific analysis, or that the EPA did
not itself conduct scientific analysis. One of the early challenges has been made by the
Peabody Energy Company. Jay Lehr, Ph.D. of the Heartland Institute has
analyzed the Peabody petition and prepared a summary of the key points
contained in the petition. Go to www.heartland.org for details. TSAugust March 28, 2010 |
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Natural Gas Bonanza
Four years ago, experts said
the United States had a shortage of natural gas. Today, the U.S. has a glut of natural gas. What happened in just four years for the U.S. to go
from shortage to glut? Fracking, in combination with horizontal drilling, has created a revolutionary change in the availability of natural gas. Fracking involves injecting water and sand under
high pressure into wells that are drilled horizontally in shale. The water fractures the shale and releases the gas
trapped in the shale. The particles of sand maintain openings in the
shale so natural gas can continue to flow. The surfeit of natural gas means there are few
reasons for building new terminals for importing liquid natural gas
(LNG). It means that more natural gas combined cycle (NGCC)
power plants can be built without fear of NG shortages. NGCC produces
electricity inexpensively and produces fewer CO2 emissions than coal. Fracking should be seen as a boon for America’s
environment by environmentalists. (Fewer LNG terminals and fewer CO2
emissions.) Fracking could free Europe from the grips of
Russia’s virtual monopoly of Natural gas, which makes NG available at
lower cost for NGCC power plants and home heating in Europe. Unfortunately, extreme environmentalists are
opposing Fracking on the basis that it might contaminate fresh water
supplies. The fear is misplaced because fracking takes place
far below the water table for potable water, and if there is water in
the area, it is brine. Innovation has once again eliminated a resource
shortage. TSAugust March 14, 2010 |
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Smart Meters
Utilities may view smart meters as a threat, or as a weapon or as an
opportunity to increase revenues while improving service to their
customers. Customers may also view them as a threat and an opportunity.
Background
Smart meters, in conjunction with a rate structure that varies with the
cost of generating electricity over a twenty-four hour period, will
allow customers to move their electric loads to when the price for
electricity is lowest.
An important issue for the utility is how to develop a time of day
pricing structure that reflects the cost of generating electricity
during the day.
Costs and prices would be highest during periods of peak load when extra
generating equipment is brought on line to meet demand.
The additional equipment may sit idle for twenty-two hours every day and
only be used when demand for electricity peaks. While sitting idle, the
equipment makes poor use of the financial investment. Accountants may
say the entire investment should be recovered by a rate based on two
hours usage each day.
This would contrast with rates for electricity from base load generating
equipment operating twenty-four hours a day where the investment would
be spread across a greater number of hours.
Equipment used for meeting peak loads may also be less efficient than
base load generating equipment.
Utilities also must keep sufficient reserve capacity in place to meet
unexpected demand. The typical reserve capacity is approximately 10%
higher than the summer or winter peak loads. Lowering the peaks will
result in smaller investments in reserve generating capacity.
The high cost of meeting peak demand gives utilities great incentive to
minimize the peaks that occur in the summer and winter.
They can do this by shedding load when demand begins to peak, or they
can have customers shift their loads to the nighttime when demand is
low.
Utilities enter into agreements with industrial and commercial customers
to allow the utilities to automatically cut the amount of electricity
delivered to each customer by cutting predetermined circuits at the
customer’s location, thereby shedding load until the period of peak
demand passes.
Industrial customers may be able to shift loads from daytime to
nighttime so as to avoid using electricity during periods of peak
demand. A factory might, for example, be able to operate a heat treating
oven at night. Threat
With this background, it’s possible to examine whether utilities view
residential customers as a threat or an opportunity.
Residential customers currently pay a flat rate for electricity no
matter the time of day. The average flat rate is around 10 cents per
kWh.
When a utility installs smart meters it needs to establish time of day
pricing, where it charges more for electricity used during peak hours
and less for electricity used during off-peak hours.
If residential customers shift some of their load to off-peak hours
where the cost of electricity is lower, the utility will receive less
revenue. This might be acceptable to a utility if it reduced peak load,
but the activity might be one that is seldom used during periods of peak
load. Dishwashers could be operated at night when rates were low which
would result in the utility loosing revenue with no offsetting benefits.
Shifting loads to obtain lower rates, could result in lower revenues for
the utility and be seen as a threat by the utility. Realistically,
however, there are very few activities that residential customers can
shift to off-peak hours.
The major residential loads are air conditioning, refrigerators and
lighting. These loads can’t be shifted to off-peak hours.
Smart meters are not a threat to utilities: They could, however, be a
threat to residential customers if the meter can control the thermostat.
If smart meters can control thermostats,
utilities, or the government, could control the temperature in a
person’s home. A utility could, for example, raise the setting to 85oin
the summer, overriding the customer’s setting of 70o. Weapon
Utilities could use smart meters as a weapon to force customers to
reduce their use of electricity during peak hours.
Utilities could do this by establishing extremely high rates during peak
periods. Peaks are routinely caused by air conditioning loads, so
extremely high rates could result in homeowners shutting off their air
conditioning to avoid paying the extremely high rates.
These rates may actually reflect the full cost of supplying electricity
during peak periods, but would place a huge burden on homeowners:
Especially low income homeowners..
If smart meters are to become commonplace, it will be necessary to
ensure that utilities can’t use the rate structure as a weapon to force
homeowners to change their behavior, while still ensuring that utilities
receive annual revenues comparable to their revenues before smart meters
were installed.
Off-peak rates need to be low enough to encourage customers to shift
usage to off peak hours. For the near future, there won’t be a
compelling reason to establish low off-peak rates since homeowners have
few opportunities to shift loads to the nighttime.
It will be essential, however, to establish low off-peak rates when
Plug-in electric vehicles become available in significant quantities.
Low off-peak rates will encourage owners of Plug-in vehicles to recharge
batteries at night rather than during the day where recharging would
exacerbate peak loads.
Opportunity
Utilities have a very large investment in equipment that sits idle or is
only partially used during nighttime hours.
When and if Plug-in electric vehicles become prevalent, utilities have a
huge opportunity to make use of this underused equipment to increase
revenues.
Low off-peak rates will induce owners of Plug-in vehicles to recharge
their vehicle’s batteries at night, during off-peak hours.
These revenues can be highly profitable even if off-peak rates are lower
than day time rates. The additional costs incurred by increased
operations during off-peak hours are variable costs, primarily for fuel,
e.g., coal or natural gas. Maintenance costs will also increase due to
the equipment being operated for more hours during the year. For the
most part, utilities will increase revenues while fixed costs remain
unchanged.
Utilities need to develop time of day pricing that maximizes revenues
without charging extremely high rates during peak hours, and with-off
peak rates high enough to offset any under-charging during peak hours.
However, off-peak rates need to be low enough to encourage increased
nighttime (off-peak) usage of electricity.
Plug-in electric vehicles represent the greatest opportunity for
utilities to increase revenues and profits since the advent of air
conditioning.
There is a caveat.
This opportunity will not materialize if Plug-in electric vehicles do
not substantially replace today’s gasoline driven vehicles; in which
case, investment in smart meters may be largely wasted.
TSAugust February 28, and March 7, 2010 |
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Bogus CHP Efficiencies
Combined Heat and Power (CHP) takes steam from the
turbine driving a generator and uses it to heat buildings or for use in
manufacturing processes. CHP used to be called Co-Generation. Some organizations, especially environmental organizations, claim that CHP is much more efficient than coal fired power plants. They cite CHP efficiencies as high as 90%. They then compare this high efficiency with the
average thermal efficiency of this nation’s coal fired power plants
which is 32%. The pseudo-thermal CHP efficiency is bogus because
it combines the value of high energy density electricity with the low
value energy of steam: It combines apples with oranges. For example: An automobile’s engine using gasoline has
considerable horse power and also heats water in the engine’s cooling
system. The hot water is then used to heat the car during the winter.
While this takes advantage of the heat in the water, the water doesn’t
have the power to drive the automobile. Gasoline has high energy density
while hot water has a low energy density. It makes economic sense to use the exhaust steam,
that would otherwise pass through a condenser and be returned to the
boiler feed water system, to heat buildings. This assumes that the cost
of the insulated steam piping and condensate return piping isn’t greater
than the value of the heat provided by the steam. CHP systems lend themselves to situations where the
power plant is located in close proximity to the buildings being heated.
These conditions are more prevalent in Europe. Consolidated Edison in New York City uses steam to
heat buildings, and has been doing so for nearly one hundred years. If the steam is extracted before it passes through
the last few stages of the steam turbine it can actually reduce the
thermal efficiency of the power plant. Extracting steam in this manner
prevents the steam from doing useful work. CHP has its place, but shouldn’t be seen as a
panacea for improving energy utilization. Note: A more detailed description of thermal
efficiencies is in the February 11, 2010 issue of Power Magazine. TSAugust February 21, 2010 |
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Snow Job
"Record snowfall illustrates the obvious: The global warming
fraud is without equal in modern science.
The fundamental problems exposed about climate-change theory undermine
the very basis of scientific inquiry. Huge numbers of researchers refuse
to provide their data to other scientists. Some referenced data is found
not to have existed. The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
2007 report that global warming activists continually cite invented a
large number of purported facts.
…..
Man-made global warming theory isn’t backed up by science; it’s a hoax.
The fact that the world has been asked to spend tens of trillions of
dollars on global warming solutions without being able to evaluate the
data upon which the claims were made should have been the first warning
that something was seriously wrong.
The public and world leaders have
been sold expensive snake oil by charlatans like Mr. Pachauri. It’s
time to admit it’s all baloney and move on.”
Highlighting by TSAugust
TSAugust
February 14, 2010
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Clean Coal?
"Clean Coal” elicits multiple responses. Extreme environmentalists respond reflexively by
saying “clean coal” is an oxymoron. Some people point to using variations of the
Fischer-Tropsch method to make liquid fuels from coal or for using coal
in Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle power plants. Another view is that new super critical and ultra super critical coal fired power plants are a clean use of coal. These modern coal fired power
plants are a vast improvement over those built in the past. The
following is a quote from Energy
for America.” “The efficiency of the fleet of existing coal plants
is 32%, while the efficiency of super critical and ultra super critical
pulverized coal power plants is 38.5% and 43.4% respectively. These represent a 20% and 35% improvement in
efficiency, respectively. In so far as ultra supercritical pulverized coal
plants are concerned, the 35% improvement could mean they would use 35%
less coal; and, interestingly, produce 35% less CO2. Emissions of NOx,
SO2, particulates (PM) and mercury are also substantially reduced. One
analysis shows that NOx is reduced by 86%, SO2 by 98%, particulate
matter by 99.8%, and mercury by 90%.” Using super critical and ultra super critical coal fired power plants can produce electricity inexpensively with a low level of pollutants such as NOx, SO2 PM’s and mercury. Note:
Energy for America will be
published in pdf format in March 2010. TSAugust February 7, 2010 |
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ICE
A proposal is circulating around Washington to ban the use of
refrigerators, and to replace refrigerators with ice-boxes.
An insider, speaking off the record, said, “Using ice-boxes is a
brilliant idea for creating jobs and cutting CO2 emissions.”
When pressed for details he said, “Ice will be made during off peak
hours when wind energy is most plentiful, and then the ice will be
delivered to homes twice each week.”
An analyst described the process in greater detail.
He pointed out that Ice boxes were used throughout America before GE
introduced the Monitor Top refrigerator in 1927. The iceman delivered
ice twice each week, and ice-boxes kept food cold and safe.
Banning the use of refrigerators will create jobs as manufacturers build
enough ice-boxes to replace all the refrigerators in America. Before
1927, ice picks were ubiquitous throughout America. A new supply will
have to be built, which will also create more new jobs. The steel
industry will also benefit from the need for thousands of new ice tongs.
Ice will be delivered to homes in specially designed, environmentally
friendly electric trucks, insulated to protect the ice from summer heat.
Building these trucks will create clean jobs.
Delivering ice to every home in America, twice each week, will require
thousands of deliverymen and women. These will be new, clean jobs for
the new economy.
A Senator on the Environment and Public Works Committee noted that
refrigerators are the largest user of electricity, after heating,
ventilation and cooling. Refrigerators consumed 156 billion kWh of
electricity in 2001.
Replacing refrigerators with ice-boxes will
create thousands of new, clean jobs for the 21st century
economy, while reducing CO2 emissions by using wind energy to produce
the ice and eliminating refrigerators that use “dirty” electricity.
Slogans in the next election are bound to include “I Like Ice” and “Make
Ice Not CO2”. Satire By Donn Dears for TSAugust
TSAugust
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Transmission Line Losses Losses from HVAC transmission lines are from
resistance, capacitance and inductance. Losses from HVDC lines are only from resistance. In addition, it requires three lines (i.e., cables)
for AC transmission and only two for HVDC transmission. For like voltages, cable sizes and distances, HVDC has fewer transmission line losses than HVAC. The cost of converting AC to DC and then
reconverting it from DC to AC is very high. Because of the conversion costs there is a crossover
point, in terms of the length of the transmission line, before HVDC is
less costly than HVAC. A quick number might be 300 miles, but that will
vary with a number of factors such as the cost of the right-of-way. HVDC could be used over environmentally sensitive
areas or underwater, such as crossing Long Island Sound. It is also
being proposed for tying together the three U.S. grids. The three grids, one covering the Eastern U.S., one
covering the Western U.S. and one for Texas all operate at different
frequencies. The DC transmission lines would isolate the three grids
from each other, but allow electricity to pass between the grids. Notes: AC has three phases and one cable is required for each phase. DC only requires two cables. Each grid operates at differing frequencies at any
moment in time. Trying to connect grids while their frequencies are
different will create large forces that will seriously damage the
system. TSAugust January 24, 2010 |
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Capacity factor is an important measurement for
evaluating different power generation methods. Essentially, capacity factor measures the amount of
electricity actually generated over a year compared with the amount of
electricity that could theoretically be produced over a year based on
the nameplate rating. Capacity factors for various power generation
methods are shown here:
For example: It requires
2,000 wind turbines rated 1.5 MW1 to generate as much
electricity as a single 1,000 MW nuclear power plant. It’s important to be alert to
differing capacity factors when reading newspaper and magazine articles.
Most reporters do not understand capacity factor, and as a result make
erroneous claims. For
example on January 9th, 2010 an article in the NY Times said
that 2,000 MW of concentrating solar “is
equivalent to the output of a couple of nuclear power plants”.
Obviously 2,000 MW of concentrating solar will produce only about 25% of
the electricity than would a couple of nuclear power plants.
Capacity factor is not the only criteria for
evaluating different methods of producing electricity. Some power generation methods are intermittent and
thus unreliable and therefore require costly back-up with gas turbines. 1: Average size of wind turbines installed over the
past three years. TSAugust January 17, 2010 |
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Demand Response
Demand response is touted as an important feature of
the smart grid. It allows the utility, the consumer or a “third
party” to control the use of electricity in people’s homes (See below). So long as the homeowner has control of his or her
thermostat, or of the refrigerator and other important appliances, the
idea has some merit. This requires the utility to contact the homeowner prior to cutting the electricity. Obviously, when there is a brief overload the utility doesn’t have the time to make the contact. There are two ways the timing issue can be resolved.
It is the second approach that is advocated by
certain government officials and those who want to control the use of
electricity. Note the term “third party” in the above definition.
This unnamed group would have control over every person’s use of
electricity if this aspect of the smart grid is implemented. They could control how warm or cool people could
keep their homes. They could limit the total amount of electricity home
owners could use or control the type of appliances approved for use. California regulators in 2009 attempted to require
utilities to have the ability to control people’s thermostats. People
opposed this effort, so it has temporarily been set aside. Note:
The following was taken from a white paper
issued by the
Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers. “A key feature of the Smart
Grid is Demand Response, where the consumer, utility or designated third
party can reduce the consumer’s energy consumption during critical usage
periods.”
TSAugust January 10, 2010 |
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Threat to America’s Security
Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS) will harm America. There has been an effort in Washington to insert
LCFS in the Senate’s cap & trade legislation. LCFS have been established in California as an
attempt to lower the amount of carbon contained in any source of oil,
which would reduce CO2 emissions from gasoline. What LCFS would really do is prevent the United
States from importing oil from Canada where Canadian oil is derived from
Tar Sands. The U.S. imports 2.5 million barrels per day of oil
from Canada. If LCFS is established it would require the U.S. to forego
this oil and instead require the U.S. to import more oil from Saudi
Arabia and other less secure areas of the world. LCFS would threaten America’s security by denying
the U.S. a source of poil from a country that is friendly toward the
U.S. Canada in fear of LCFS is turning to China for the
sale of its oil. The U.S. will, in effect, help China with its
sourcing of oil while leaving the U.S. more vulnerable. TSAugust January, 3 2010 |
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EV Push
There is a huge effort underway to promote EV’s. EV’s are all electric
vehicles that run on batteries where the vehicle will have a range of 80
to 100 miles before the battery charge is depleted and the vehicle
stops.
The push is on to spend billions of dollars on charging stations. These
chargers are not ordinary 120 volt charging stations, such as the outlet
found in a homeowners garage, but fast chargers that take only minutes
to recharge a battery.
These Level III stations are very expensive. There is no known business
model that will allow entrepreneurs or governments to charge enough for
recharging batteries to recover their investment. The entire effort will
have to be paid for by taxpayers.
There is no need for Level III charging.
The Plug-in electric vehicle that retains a gasoline engine on board the
vehicle can go 40 miles using the battery and then shift to gasoline
mode to continue driving when the battery is depleted.
There is no fear of running out of power, so long as there is a gasoline
station nearby.
This effort by environmentalists is terribly misplaced, because people
won’t distinguish between EV’s and PHEV’s and the entire concept of
electrification of the transportation system will be given a black eye
at a moment in time critical to its development.
TSAugust
December 26, 2009 |
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Electricity Shortage by 2050
Cap & trade legislation will result in a 24%
shortfall in electricity by 2050 which, on a per capita basis is nearly
twice as great. This analysis was sent to every member of Congress as a memorandum. It was printed in letter format, front and back, on poster stock so that it could be displayed on bulletin boards and easily filed for quick reference. The memorandum was prepared by Donn Dears, an energy
expert and retired GE Company executive. Key factors demonstrated in the memorandum are:
TSAugust December 13, 2009 Note: Single copies of the memorandum are available for
individuals. Send a request for a single copy to
ddears@tsaugust.org. Include the return USPS mail address in the
request. Please recognize that there is a limited supply of these memoranda and that the total cost to the author is nearly $2 to mail single copies to individuals. Tax deductable contributions can be made to
TSAugust. Checks should be made out to TSAugust. They should be mailed to: TSAugust
1856 Old Reston Avenue, Suite 205 Note: Contributions are not accepted from corporations. TSAugust relies on individual contributions, and contributions of any size are gratefully received. |
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Climate Scientists Cooked the Books
If the CEO of a major corporation was found to have emailed
his associates to manipulate data, hide data and refuse Freedom of
Information Requests (FOI) he would be called before Congress and
summarily dismissed by his board of directors.
Congress and the public would demand an investigation by an
independent auditor, and not accept an internal review by the
corporation.
T
Now the UN is saying they will investigate. But this situation demands
an independent audit; otherwise everyone will know the internal
investigation was a cover-up. While many in the media have accepted at face value the information provided by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which based much of its report on CRU data that is now suspect, another group of scientists have produced a report “Climate Change Reconsidered: The 2009 Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC),” that rebuts, item by item, the IPCC report. The entire contents of Climate Change Reconsidered are available online at www.nipccreport.org .
Here is information on some of the key players in
Climate Gate. (Extracted from a December 4, 2009 article by Times
Examiner
Columnist, Barbara Hollingsworth.)
Geoff Jenkins,
chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change’s first scientific group and self-described “frontman explaining
climate change.” Jenkins admitted in 1996 to a “cunning plan” to feed
fake temperature information to Nick Nuttall, head of media for the
United Nations Environment program. At the time, Jenkins predicted
temperatures in London would hit 113 degrees Fahrenheit and the Thames
River would rise three feet even though 1996 was, in fact, cooler than
1995.
Phil Jones,
director of the CRU, controlled two key databases that are the primary
sources underlying claims by the United Nations and others of a global
scientific “consensus” that catastrophic consequences will result from
man-made global warming unless trillions of dollars are spent now to
prevent it.
Jones e-mailed instructions to colleagues to
“hide the decline” in temperatures and to pressure editors of academic
journals to blackball the work of “climate skeptics.”
James Hansen,
head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, whose records were
also cited as evidence, second only to the CRU data, of incontrovertible
man-made global warming. McIntyre also caught Hansen engaging in the
same sort of statistical manipulation in which past temperatures were
lowered and recent ones “adjusted” to convey the false impression that
the nonexistent warming trend was accelerating. After trying to block
McIntyre’s IP address, NASA was forced to back down from its claim that
1998 was the hottest year in U.S. history.
TSAugust December 5, 2009 |
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IPCC Head Works for China The UN's IPCC's Chairman Pachauri is now an advisor to the Chinese government. As head of the IPCC, he has been leading the UN’s effort to get a new treaty, i.e., Kyoto II, established in Copenhagen this December. Where do his allegiances lie? Certainly not to the United States if he is working for the Chinese government. He has said, “China and India should ‘shame’ developed economies into ‘wealth transfer’”. What he wants is for the United States to transfer U.S. citizens’ tax dollars to India and China. This is a blatant effort to work against the interests of the United States while also heading the IPCC. It’s akin to the President of the United States accepting a job offer from China. Might not that be considered a conflict of interest? Why doesn’t the government of the United States demand Pachauri’s resignation as head of the UN’s IPCC? Certainly, this demonstrates that the IPCC is a political rather than a scientific body. TSAugust November 29, 2009
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Is Solar Power a Failure?
In
1978, the Wall Street Journal carried this headline: “Solar Power Seen
Meeting 20 percent of Needs by 2000; Carter May Seek Outlay Boost.”
In November 2006, the Wall Street Journal said “Renewable fuels may
provide 25% of U.S. energy by 2025.”
Billions of dollars have been poured into the solar industry with little
effect after 30 years.
Today, solar accounts for less than 1% of America’s electricity.
Solar was invented in 1839 by French physicist Alexandre Edmond
Becquerel. After 170 years of scientific exploration and development,
solar remains the most costly source of electricity. In Germany the cost
of PV solar is estimated at 59 cents per kWh while some in the U.S.
estimate it at between 14 to 28 cents per kWh.
PV solar is the most expensive form of solar generated electricity, but
concentrating solar is also far more expensive than electricity
generated from coal, nuclear, wind, hydro, or geothermal.
This is not surprising because PV solar has a capacity factor of only
16%. This compares with 22% for concentrating solar, 30% for wind and
92% for nuclear.
Germany’s experience with solar has been very negative while the U.S.
experience has been mediocre, at best.
Sources: Speech by
Congressman Tom McClitock October 22, 2009
Book, The
Solar Fraud, by Hayden.
TSAugust
November 22, 2009 |
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Germany’s Renewable Experience The real cost and the
absolute failure of Germany’s renewable energy policy has been
demonstrated in a report by the
Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), an
independent German economic policy think tank founded in 1926.
The German law passed in 2000 requires utilities to accept delivery of
power from independent producers until 2020 at costs that far exceed the
utilities’ cost of generating electricity.
Utilities must pay 59 cents per kWh for solar generated electricity and
up to three times the cost of conventionally generated electricity for
electricity from wind power.
With these high feed in tariffs solar only produced 0.6% of Germany’s
electricity in 2008 and wind only produced 6.3%.
The combined cost of these subsidies between 2000 and 2010 is estimated
to be $101.3 billion.
Subsidization costs for PV solar are equivalent to $240,000 per employee
for estimated solar jobs. The report states that “whatever jobs are
created from these subsidies would vanish as soon as the subsidies are
discontinued.”
The report concludes, “government policy has failed to harness the
market incentives needed to ensure a viable and cost-effective
introduction of renewable energies into Germany’s energy portfolio. To
the contrary, Germany’s principal mechanism of supporting renewable
technologies through feed-in tariffs imposes high costs without any of
the alleged positive impacts on emissions reductions, employment, energy
security, or technological innovation.”
The full report is available in English from the RWI web site.
TSAugust
November 8, and 15, 2009 |
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CO2 Emissions from Coal
Coal fired electricity produces 50% of America’s electricity and 82% of
the CO2 emissions that come from generating electricity.
Eliminating the use of coal without a viable substitute for coal or a
means for capturing and sequestering CO2, will deprive America of the
electricity it needs to run its factories and light its homes.
Successfully capturing CO2 from coal fired power plants has yet to be
proven on a large scale. If it ever works on a large scale it will
require building one new power plant for every three that are
retrofitted with carbon capture equipment.
The reason it will be necessary to build a new power plant for every
three plants retrofitted with carbon capture equipment is that the
carbon capture equipment consumes electricity and energy produced by the
power plant. This parasitic load reduces by 30 to 40% the amount of
electricity the plant can send to the grid.
Since coal provides 50% of America’s electricity it will be necessary to
build enough new generating capacity to equal17% of our current
production of electricity. This would equate to around 88 additional new
nuclear power plants or another 175,000 wind turbines rated 1.5 MW.
The United States is in the process of obtaining licenses for around 20
new nuclear plants, which is far short of the 88 needed for the sole
purpose of supplying the electricity lost from carbon capture. The
United States, on average between 2007 through 2009, built around 3,900
new wind turbines each year, far short of the 175,000 needed to replace
the electricity lost from carbon capture.
Clearly, carbon capture is not a viable alternative for eliminating CO2
from coal fired power plants.
TSAugust
November 1, 2009 |
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CO2 Litigation
Litigation of CO2 could seriously damage the United States as well as
the world economy.
This became apparent at the UN Bangkok meeting this month.
Litigation could follow three tracks.
Litigation against corporations is already proceeding in The United
States. The suit by Connecticut v. American Electric Power has received
the most media attention.
The insurance company Swiss Re has compared climate change litigation to
asbestos claim suits that were initially dismissed but eventually won
huge financial settlements in court.
The EPA has issued an endangerment finding and has said it will impose
mandates on emitters of CO2 in 2010. Organizations have already
indicated they will sue to strike down the endangerment finding and the
proposed mandates. At the UNFCCC October meeting in Bangkok,
representatives from developing countries were pointing the finger at
the United States and other developed countries. Antonio Oposa, a Philippine lawyer, said “it was
‘only a matter of time’ until properly constituted international
tribunals began hearing class actions seeking reparation from
‘over-consuming countries’ for damage caused by climate change in
developing nations. Recent history has shown that organizations pursue
legal remedies when they don’t get what they want. The threat of legal action is already causing
corporations to think twice about making sound economic investments. The
situation could become far worse over the next decade. It could affect
job growth and America’s standard of living. Source of quotation: CCNET, The Irish Times October
8, 2009 TSAugust October 25, 2009 |
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CO2 Revisited
There are several good reasons to say that CO2 emissions are not the
cause of global warming.
An excellent video by a respected weatherman is well worth watching.
(There is an advertisement preceding the video that we could not
bypass.)
Click on this link for the video by Weatherman Joe Bastardi.
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=37129475001
In addition to the facts presented by Bastardi, here are some additional
facts.
Empirical Evidence Suggests Cyclical Climate History, not Induced by
CO2.
As Bastardi said, the global warming finger print over the equator is
missing. Satellite temperature readings show no increase in temperature
where there should be according to the IPCC computer models.
TSAugust
October 18, 2009
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CO2 Based Energy Policy
Will the United States be the leading world economy
in 2050? Or will the U.S. sink into the second tier behind China, India,
Brazil and possibly Russia? America’s future will depend on its energy policy. If the U.S. continues to base its energy policy on
the threat of CO2 induced Global Warming, it will almost assuredly
become a second rate economic power. The Waxman – Markey cap & trade bill and the more
recent Senate version will result in less energy, fewer jobs and
hardships for Americans. Cap & trade achieves one thing, it cuts the use of
energy. Worse it cuts the use of viable energy sources when
there are no proven substitutes. Extreme environmentalists tout wind, solar,
cellulosic ethanol, algae, carbon capture and sequestration, etc. while
members of Congress, who have little scientific or engineering training,
slavishly follow their lead. The brutal fact is that these so called alternatives
cannot replace coal, natural gas or the use of gasoline.
Many environmental organizations say the U.S. must
use less energy, not more. Conservation cannot cut emissions by the 83%
required by cap & trade legislation. Improving efficiency and productivity is good for
America, but with cap & trade the goal is to cut the use of energy. TSAugust October 10, 2009 |
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Indecipherable Language
Waxman-Markey HR 2454 was written in such haste by inexperienced staff
members that many sections are incomprehensible. As written, HR 2454
will result in litigation for years to come. The threat of litigation
will retard economic development. An example is Section 610 (a) (13) (B) iii concerning whether electric generation equipment can be installed on an existing dam.
The relevant text reads:
“the hydroelectric project installed on the dam is operated so that the
water surface elevation at any given location and time that would have
occurred in the absence of the hydroelectric project is maintained, …”
A strict reading of this sentence would say that electricity could never
be produced at such an installation. When water flow increases, such as
when it rains, water levels will rise – but if the hydro generators are
operated the water levels can’t rise as much as they otherwise would.
Even if the difference can’t be measured, which is possible on a large
river, the theoretical result is obvious … water levels would have risen
by some additional fraction of an inch if the generators hadn’t been
run.
This is the type of situation that keeps lawyers employed.
It would be clearer to say that water levels would never go below a
minimum level, measured from a fixed reference point; perhaps from the
top of the dam.
In the same section there is language concerning fuel cells. The text
reads:
“greater efficiency with which the fuel cell transforms fuel into
electricity as compared with sources of electricity delivered through
the grid, …” The sources of electricity delivered through the grid could be hydro, nuclear, coal, wind or a combination of multiple sources. How will it be possible to establish whether the fuel cell is more efficient than electricity available from the grid? Will the assumption be that electricity from the
grid is from a mix of sources even though the mix varies between regions
and over time? Or if the intent is to
compare how efficiently fuel cells transform fuels compared with a
single source such as wind or hydro, fuel cells might never be approved.
Who knows?
Here are two badly drafted sentences from a single section of HR 2454.
How many more are there in a bill that is 1428 pages long, drafted in
haste by staff members who do not have the necessary background to know
what they are doing? TSAugust October 4, 2009 |
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Smoot Hawley déjà
vu Smoot Hawley is credited with having worsened, if
not caused, the great depression. Now Waxman-Markey HR2454 is bent on repeating this
colossal error. It does it in an underhanded way by requiring
importers to have international reserve allowances. The imports of
certain countries are excluded, but these are small undeveloped
countries that play a very small role in international trade. China, India, Brazil and other major exporters will
have to have these reserve allowances. This approach is being used to circumvent the
requirements of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The WTO’s policies and agreements, to which the U.S.
subscribes, are intended to promote free trade and eliminate the type of
beggar thy neighbor policies that worsened the great depression. Sub Part 2, Sections 766 and
767 describe this program. In it the President is required to report to
Congress on the effectiveness of “mitigating
carbon leakage in industrial sectors.”
“Carbon leakage” is the euphemism for industries moving offshore as the
result of cap & trade regulations.
HR2454 threatens China and India by requiring the Administrator to
report to Congress if these countries have not enacted targets as strong
as those contained in HR2454. Here is the exact language:
“The Administrator, in consultation with the Department of State and the
United States Trade Representative, shall annually prepare and certify a
report to the Congress regarding whether China and India have adopted
greenhouse gas emissions standards at least as strict as those standards
required under this Act. If the Administrator determines that China and
India have not adopted greenhouse gas emissions standards at least as
stringent as those set forth in this Act, the Administrator shall notify
each Member of Congress of his determination, and shall release his
determination to the media.”
TSAugust
September 20, 2009 |
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Waxman-Markey Dictates Codes
It has long been the practice in the United States to allow local and
state governments to establish building codes that best suit the needs
of their local communities.
Waxman-Markey will take this prerogative away from local and state
governments and place control in the hands of the federal bureaucracy.
This is another example of how Waxman-Markey is grabbing control from
local and state governments.
The Waxman-Markey bill, HR 2454, requires that
new and substantially renovated
commercial and residential buildings achieve a total reduction in energy
use of 70% by 2030. (Substantially renovated can mean anything the
federal government dictates.)
State
governments must certify to the federal government that at least 80%
of its urban population is covered by the national code. If states do
not so certify, Waxman-Markey gives the federal government the right to
impose the national standards without local agreement.
The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has already developed a
methodology for measuring energy use reductions, incorporating regional
climate and other factors. PNNL has developed separate computer models
for commercial buildings, schools, hospitals and residential buildings
so that the Department of Energy can determine whether the nation is
meeting the reductions mandated by Waxman-Markey.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has
developed a building energy optimization tool called BEopt. This tool is
designed to focus on “zero net energy” use.
Zero net energy use is another
major target of the Waxman-Markey bill.
Zero net energy use envisions that local buildings will generate their
own power etc. using net metering and conservation to achieve zero net
energy use.
This will strong arm building owners and developers to add such items as
renewable energy (i.e., primarily PV Solar) and combined heat and power.
This imposes high cost inefficiencies on building owners and users,
costs that will have to be borne by the public in the form of higher
prices.
One example of the BEopt model shows a $65 thousand investment in PV
solar out of $76 thousand spent to achieve zero net energy use. PV solar
is two to three times as expensive as electricity bought from the grid.
High cost inefficient energy systems may save energy used by a
centralized power plant, but increases costs for the overall economy.
For example doctors who lease space using high cost energy systems will
have to charge more for their services or further reduce their ability
to provide services to everyone. Retail stores that have to use
inefficient systems will have to charge higher prices. Everyone is
affected negatively by the national code being imposed by Waxman-Markey.
TSAugust September 13, 2009 |
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Net Metering
Net metering requires an electric utility to pay
twice as much, or more, for electricity than if it generated the
electricity at its power plant. When only a very small number of customers take
advantage of net metering the extra cost to the utility is extremely
small and the effect on other customers is negligible.
If a large number of customers used net metering, the extra cost to the utility would
have to be covered by other customers. In other words, people are
subsidizing their neighbors cost of electricity when the neighbor uses
net metering. The purported purpose of net metering is to
encourage people to install distributed generation capabilities,
primarily PV solar. The cost of a PV solar rooftop installation is
extremely high, especially when measured by cost per kWh. The cost per
kWh of electricity from a central natural gas, coal or nuclear power
station is much lower. Net metering works by allowing the electric meter
installed on a home to run backwards. When the home owner uses
electricity from the grid, the meter advances and registers a sale for
the utility. When the home owner generates more electricity than
he can use, the meter runs backwards as the electricity flows to the
grid. The meter deducts the amount of electricity flowing to the grid
thereby reducing the home owner’s bill. The homeowner is, in effect,
selling electricity to the utility at the same price he would pay the
utility when buying electricity from the utility. Advocates of net metering claim that net metering encourages the use of renewables and reduces capital expenditures by the utility. Net metering, however, is different from
conservation because it requires a large capital investment by the home
owner. The homeowner’s investment is less efficient, as shown above,
than an investment made by the utility. In effect, inefficient use of capital is being
encouraged by net metering. Section 152 of the Waxman-Markey bill specifically
requires federal buildings to use net metering. This will reduce the cost of electricity to the
government, but will increase the utility’s costs that will eventually
have to be borne by the ordinary rate payer. Net metering by the federal
government becomes a hidden tax on consumers. TSAugust September 6, 2009 |
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Climate Change, Urinals & Deficit Spending The link between climate change and toilets can be
found in the Waxman-Markey cap & trade bill, HR 2454.
This bill establishes rules for a plethora of products
including light bulbs, search lights, light fixtures, water dispensers,
portable electric spas, warm air furnaces, faucets, toilets, clothes
washers, shower heads and urinals, among others. It also goes into great detail as to how these items
are to be tested. It then establishes how the government is to pay
dealers and manufacturers for selling best-in-class products and for
retiring old products. Not satisfied with establishing Best-in-Class
products, the bill establishes Superefficient-Best-in-Class products. Perhaps the next step will be to establish
SuperDuper-Superefficient-Best in Class products.
Here is the language for payments to manufacturers
for the years indicated.
“For years 2011 through 2013, the Secretary shall make bonus payments to
manufacturers of the products designated in paragraph (4)(A) for each
product produced in the following amounts:
(i)
$75 for each dishwasher.
(ii) $250 for each clothes washer.
(iii) $200 for each refrigerator or refrigerator-freezer
(vi) $300 for each water heater”
This will result in huge payments to manufacturers, in the order of
billions of dollars, when the government is already broke.
The bill States:
“There are authorized to be appropriated $600,000,000 for each of the
fiscal years 2011 through 2013 to the Secretary of Energy for purposes
of this section, and such sums as may be necessary for subsequent fiscal
years.”
It goes on to provide for payment of bounties:
“(2) BOUNTIES.—Bounties shall be payable—
(A) to a retailer upon documentation that the sale of a Best-in-Class
Product was accompanied by the replacement, retirement, and recycling
of—“
HR 2454 is over 1500 pages long, so the subject addressed here is only a
small snippet of what is contained in the bill.
TSAugust
August 30, 2009
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Waxman Markey snippet Here is a tiny snippet from the 1428 page HR2454.
‘‘(4) CUSTOMER
FACILITY SAVINGS.— The term ‘customer facility savings’ means a
reduction in end use electricity consumption (including recycled energy
savings) at a facility of an end-use consumer of electricity served by a
retail electric supplier, as compared to— ‘‘(A) in the case of a new facility, consumption at
a reference facility of average efficiency; ‘‘(B) in the case of an existing facility,
consumption at such facility during a base period, except as provided in
subparagraphs (C) and (D); ‘‘(C) in the case of new equipment that replaces
existing equipment with remaining useful life, the projected consumption
of the existing equipment for the remaining useful life of such
equipment, and thereafter, consumption of new equipment of average
efficiency of the same equipment type; and ‘‘(D) in
the case of new equipment that replaces existing equipment at the end of
the useful life of the existing equipment, consumption
by new equipment of average efficiency of the same equipment type.” Few staffers and even fewer Congressmen or women
could possibly know what this means. Imagine how many bureaucrats and customer reports
will be required to interpret and administer this lonely paragraph. Then think about how many bureaucrats it will take to administer and interpret the remaining 1428 pages of HR2454
TSAugust August 23, 2009 |
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